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laurabronner's profile
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
@laurabronner

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Laura Bronner

@laurabronner

Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 🇦🇹 in 🇺🇸, via 🇬🇧 | she/her

New York, NY
laurabronner.com
Joined August 2015

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    1. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner 27 Sep 2019

      I *was* going to write an article about herding in Austrian polls this week... but things got weirdly busy, so here's a thread instead. Austria's having an election this Sunday, and the polls have been incredibly stable. So stable, in fact, that there's good evidence of herding. https://twitter.com/laurabronner/status/1177284463396556803 …pic.twitter.com/6TKKFzUMvM

      4 replies 32 retweets 98 likes
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    2. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner 27 Sep 2019

      To check for herding, I took the 18 polls released since Aug. 1, and simulated the standard deviation you'd expect based on the polling average and sample sizes. I compared that to the actual standard deviation of the polls, which turned out to be *a lot* smaller.pic.twitter.com/c7rNfp8bon

      2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
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    3. Noah Purcell‏ @NoahJPurcell 28 Sep 2019
      Replying to @laurabronner

      What method did you use to simulate standard deviation?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner 28 Sep 2019
      Replying to @NoahJPurcell

      I simulated new poll results for all 18 polls by sampling from a normal distribution around the polling average assuming SRS and each poll's sample size, then did that a bunch of times and took the standard deviation each time.

      12:45 PM - 28 Sep 2019
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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