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I *was* going to write an article about herding in Austrian polls this week... but things got weirdly busy, so here's a thread instead. Austria's having an election this Sunday, and the polls have been incredibly stable. So stable, in fact, that there's good evidence of herding. https://twitter.com/laurabronner/status/1177284463396556803 …pic.twitter.com/6TKKFzUMvM
To check for herding, I took the 18 polls released since Aug. 1, and simulated the standard deviation you'd expect based on the polling average and sample sizes. I compared that to the actual standard deviation of the polls, which turned out to be *a lot* smaller.pic.twitter.com/c7rNfp8bon
While the above chart shows the ÖVP, this is true for *all* major parties in Austria; in some cases, the actual standard deviation was less than half of what we'd expect.pic.twitter.com/hjcSYSPQhJ
It turns out that at least two major parties showed evidence of herding in *all* of the last six elections, and in some cases almost all parties did.pic.twitter.com/fqUmvB3n7J
The problem with herding is twofold: (1) it reduces the variance of the estimate -- preventing us from getting an accurate measure of the uncertainty in the race -- and (2) it can potentially bias results if pollsters are converging on the wrong number.
But despite evidence of herding, the mean absolute polling error -- the mean difference between the result and the last-4-week polling average, by party -- is quite low. Despite herding, Austrian polls are quite predictive!pic.twitter.com/dHMfhBG08j
What does this mean for Sunday's election? Well, things are probably more uncertain than the polls make them seem. We have good reason to believe that the polls aren't adequately incorporating the uncertainty in the race, leaving room for surprises.
Would be nice to start threads like this with a shirt definition of herding for those of us who don't know
See paragraph 4: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-handle-an-outlier-poll/ … Herding is the opposite of outlier polls: it's pollsters putting a thumb on the scale to match the polling consensus for fear of being wrong. However, it makes polling less accurate and more biased to conventional wisdom.
Read this as Australia at first then saw the German and was for a split second confused.
The Australian election that was this year in May is another a great example of the polls herding. In that case the polls herded to the wrong number. The government won by 1.5% despite all the polls saying they should lose by 1-2%.
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