Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 
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Where did Harris's new supporters come from -- and where did Biden's go? Two thirds of her post-debate support was new, and a full 25% was previously Biden's. Conversely, 2/3 of Biden's supporters stuck with him, but Harris was the biggest beneficiary. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-kamala-harriss-new-voters-came-from/ …pic.twitter.com/6Dz7CJY0iv
Debate-watchers were more likely to change their mind than non-watchers. But while Harris gained a lot more among watchers, Biden's drop was almost as big among non-watchers as it was among people who watched.pic.twitter.com/awSp9K2km9
Changes in net favorability follow a similar pattern, with Biden's drop meaning that Warren now leads in net favorability overall, followed by Sanders, Biden and Harris in the top tier. In terms of change, Castro, Warren and Harris -- and O'Rourke -- are the standouts.pic.twitter.com/cMCVh0jW2K
Many thanks to @baseballot, as well as @annette_choi and @ellawinthrop for the beautiful charts! (Including a slope chart 
)
kind of annoying that the scales on these charts are so different for being visually the same chart
Where did they come from? From cotton eye Joe.
That means she's unelectable to me ...
Would love to see these numbers for all candidates! Will they go up on github eventually?
Great charts! As a follow-up, would it make sense to scale some of these by the candidate support? Biden has a larger share of supporters, so it makes sense to me that most of the new supporter came from him.
An analysis I'd like to see: were departing supporters more likely to switch to a candidate their previous choice faced in the same night or from the other debate? I'd posit the two-night format may create some complex dynamics in that regard.
Right now, on Real Clear Politics, Biden is still number 1 but in a steep decline. Warren, Harris, and Sanders are in a statistical tie with Sanders in a steep decline since late April, Warren continuing her steady rise and Harris shooting up steeply since the debate.
It just boggles the mind that @538politics and @NateSilver538 think each poll, this far out from the first primary, needs to be micro-analyzed. What happened to Harris could be reversed with a stumble at the next debate or Warren or someone else could score a huge moment.
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