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What are the stakes of including a citizenship question on the census? Predicting the effects of such a giant but uncertain change is really hard, but this great piece by @ameliatd and @ellawinthrop presents five different scenarios.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-citizenship-question-could-cost-california-and-texas-a-seat-in-congress/ …pic.twitter.com/A7MNMUARWB
Each scenario makes different assumptions about (a) which group(s) of people will be undercounted, and (b) by how much. What's striking is that the projected effects on congressional apportionment are quite consistent: CA, and likely TX, will lose out.pic.twitter.com/pkNnBARerz
We thought a lot about how to communicate the uncertainty involved here. Our decision to present all five scenarios, created by three different researchers/teams, is our attempt to show how varying the underlying assumptions affects the forecasts.
Isn’t MT’s +1 almost guaranteed regardless of how different groups are undercounted? As of 2018 they were over 1.06M with only one rep.
That's a good point. I'd like to see a baseline. We've had 2 reps before
Memo to California, Opportunity to eliminate a red District. Sincerely, The Horizon
Montana, MInnesota, and Ohio will win.
If they have to kick out one ca house seat can it be devin nunes’ seat?
Does the +1 for Alabama in three of the scenarios mean that Alabama would gain a seat compared to its current apportionment (from 7 to 8 seats), or that Alabama would not lose a seat it might lose with a fair count (7 seats instead of potentially 6)?
Good. Those seats are undeserved.
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