in 
, via 
| she/her
@baseballot and @geoffreyvs look at how lopsided the debates will be.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-dnc-tried-to-avoid-a-lopsided-debate-it-got-one-anyway/ …
Show this thread
How unlikely was this large a discrepancy between the two debates, given the DNC's stratified randomization methodology? Pretty unlikely, but 11% of simulations are even more imbalanced.pic.twitter.com/KSMK7bvxxM
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Pretty sure this is the optimal bipartite division in terms of trying to match the first two moments conditional on having the same number above 2%. The Biden debate admittedly looks kind of lop-sided, which I guess gets at the futility of the exercise.pic.twitter.com/lrKo9kNqGk
-
People are complaining for the same reason they complained when iPod's shuffle mode would play the same artist twice in a row.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
I wish they did it like jr high gym class sports team selection. Top 2 candidates are the captains and they take turns selecting who to take on their own debate night (or for an even more fun variation: they get select who the other person gets). There wouldn't be enough popcorn
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
honestly, it's just one random flip from being exactly the balance they intended. Flip Harris and Kobachar (for example) and boom, done. So I mean it went like they wanted except for one trade off. Oh well.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
@NateSilver538 does the Dem debates line up show a flaw in the thinking that randomness is fair? (And am I blocked now?) -
It just showed the flaw of only splitting those over 2% evenly between the 2 nights. There is a large disparity for candidates above 2% (some around 2%, some around 5%, some over 10%). This was likely to happen.
- 2 more replies
New conversation -
-
-
However it was arrived at, the result is that I will be watching only the second debate. Warren will eventually show up on stage with the other front runners in future debates.
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
- 1 more reply
New conversation -
-
-
To know for sure if it isn't statistically significant you'd need to run probably a one tailed t test. While I'd be really surprised if it is significant, you can never know for sure.
- 2 more replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.