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Kyle Waters
@kylewaters_
research contributor
Boston, MAkylejwaters.comJoined April 2015

Kyle Waters’s Tweets

1/ Here's why many trading influencers on CT might be completely wrong about ETH crashing post-Shanghai: At most, 2.4 billion USD worth of ETH could be sold, over the course of many days, in a market that frequently does over 10 billion USD of volume daily.
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I just published an investigation into what I consider the biggest risk in DeFi: single points of failure that, if exploited, could cause unprecedented destruction. Here's everything you need to know about "Admin Keys" 🧵 👇
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All of this is pulling live from our own nodes which we'll be closely monitoring. oh, and we're doing a live stream with an all-star cast😎
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Join us for what may be the greatest Ethereum Merge Pre-Show ever! We'll follow the Merge and share real-time commentary with a lineup of industry experts and all-stars. #Eth2 #Merge 🔴 Watch live on Twitter & YouTube OR 📨 RSVP to join the Zoom call: hubs.li/Q01mdSZy0
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first view above is a live block-by-block check of Execution Layer data leading up to TTD (just 'naively' predicting its time from the last observed diff) the live chart below will help us visualize the network health of the Consensus Layer leading up to and after The Merge:
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8/ There’s way more in this report! Everything from the basics of the Beacon Chain to liquid staking derivatives to a reflection on where miners will go to the future roadmap of Ethereum and how The Merge fits in. Check out the full report here!
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7/ Tepid demand for Ethereum blockspace at present implies a slightly positive daily net issuance with 13.3M ETH staked. But just a small increase to base fees and ETH will cross back over the deflationary frontier. A return to Jan 2022 levels would mean ~10K ETH removed per day.
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6/ To account for the high variability of burn rate, the heatmap below presents different scenarios of daily ETH burnt and issued. The dashed line shows the current level of staked ETH with the dates corresponding to the median daily burn rate in that month.
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5/ The next big question everyone wants to know is whether ETH will be deflationary post-Merge. EIP-1559’s fee burn has already flipped ETH issuance under 0 a few times. But issuance dropping close to 90% under PoS means ETH would have been deflationary nearly that whole time:
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4/ Unlike rewards on the Beacon Chain which are currently locked until withdrawals are activated, tips will immediately be accessible post-Merge b/c they’re paid out on the execution layer. But the irregularity of block proposals means income spikiness to a single validator.
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3/ The plot above shows that the top 5% of blocks by total tips have accounted for about half of _all_ tips. This means that the rewards from one validator to the next will vary in practice. But the median tip should add at least an extra 150 bps to the typical validators’ APR.
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2/ Everyone wants to know what the returns to staking ETH will be post-Merge. Rewards are set to increase from an avg 4.5% per yr today as tx fees are redirected from miners to validators, but by how much? The range of answers lies in the distribution of priority fees aka tips:
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1/ As each block diff brings us closer to The Merge, research is excited to share our latest report covering its implications for the future of Ethereum. Like all CM research, it’s packed full of high quality data visualizations! Here are a few of my favorites ⬇️
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Includes two really important charts building off the work by Below, we tracked the block-level standard deviation of gas prices for: 1) just simple ETH transfers 2) USDC transfers Type 2 (EIP-1559 compliant) transactions have a markedly lower variation.
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A very informative and instructive deep dive by into the mechanics of Ethereum gas fees, also featuring some novel analysis showing the technical benefits of EIP-1559 to users in reducing transaction fee variability.
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All #Ethereum users know what gas is and that the price for it can vary quite a bit. But for beginner users, this is about the limit of their understanding. In the latest report from Coin Metrics Research, we explain the role of gas on Ethereum and how its price is determined.
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