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If we had to make a best-picture category from films that have already screened, BELFAST, KING RICHARD, and THE POWER OF THE DOG are the best situated. I'd currently fill out that list with CODA, CYRANO, DUNE, THE HAND OF GOD, A HERO, SPENCER and TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

But we've still got major contenders on the way: LICORICE PIZZA, WEST SIDE STORY, NIGHTMARE ALLEY, HOUSE OF GUCCI, ETERNALS, BEING THE RICARDO, and DON'T LOOK UP

The current Best Actor race is shaping up to be Will Smith (KING RICHARD) vs Denzel Washington (TRAGEDY OF MACBETH). Of the performances I've seen so far, you could likely add to that category Benedict Cumberbatch (THE POWER OF THE DOG) and Peter Dinklage (CYRANO)

Best Actress: Kristen Stewart (SPENCER) and Frances McDormand (TRAGEDY OF MACBETH) feel like sure things. Olivia Colman (THE LOST DAUGHTER) and Caitriona Balfe (BELFAST) could also make the case here. But this is a deep race with many former winners still to be seen.

Can Jennifer Hudson & Jessica Chastain sustain momentum for biopics that didn't click? Could a non-English performance like Penelope Cruz or Renate Reinsve break through? Will THE LAST DUEL hit hard enough for Jodie Comer? And then there's Gaga, Kidman, Blanchett, J Law to come

Best Supporting Actor: Look, Oscar loves shit like Jared Leto's big, prosthetic-laden HOUSE OF GUCCI performance, or whatever B Coop is doing in the LICORICE PIZZA trailer. And this category, so far, does not have a notable front runner

But until those arrive, I like Jon Bernthal (KING RICHARD), Kodi Smit-McPhee (POWER OF THE DOG), one or both BELFAST gentlemen (Jamie Dornan and Ciarin Hinds), and yes... Ben Affleck (THE LAST DUEL)