Lena Komileva

@komileva

The Prototypical Financial Economist: IB, Intermed, Wealth. Speaker, Columnist, TV head, Contributor

London, UK
gpluseconomics.com
Vrijeme pridruživanja: travanj 2013.
629 fotografija ili videozapisa Fotografije i videozapisi

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    29. lip 2014.

    We live in interesting times. The IMF warns not to tighten too early, the warns them not to go too late

    14 replies 70 proslijeđenih tweetova 61 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  2. 1. velj

    A structural break-down of the cyclical link between inflation & the output gap - old economy oversupply - has broken the link between rates & growth, resulting in an unprecedented delinking b/n policy setting, vol and financial risk. The 'new normal' is a giant bubble

    "The Powell Fed has been very open-minded about understanding that there are a lot of benefits to a low unemployment rate," Fed's Richard Clarida says on . "We're willing to probe to see low the unemployment rate can go."
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  3. 1. velj

    This last wave of UK politicians, both Left & Right, took advantage of the dispossessed vote to create irreparable damage to the link b/n country & political power. Brexit gave birth to ultra nationalism, fragmentation, partisanship: the UK is becoming a hybrid of Italy & the US.

    to the millions of good Britons grieving tonight: take heart; this monstrous act of self harm will not stand because the vast majority of the young repudiate it; will in time reverse it and will look back on all who made it possible with astounded contempt
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  4. 31. sij

    I have found the answer to Brexit today.

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    On Brexit Day, Remembrance Day

    2:11
    A message to Europe, this morning on the White Cliffs of Dover. Sound on.
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  6. 31. sij

    So we're here: The Hard Brexit, with a transition period (thanks to a short-term NI devolution), that we've long expected. Remember where we were on 7/05/15, the last election before the Britain lost its liberal socio-economic identity, and how we got here

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    interesting mood music from Tory MPs admitting that a US-UK trade deal isn't the be-all-and-end-all after all, via

    5 replies 31 proslijeđeni tweet 39 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  8. 30. sij

    The main take-away today is that the BoE has no firm conviction on where UK rates should go next, up or down. Compare that with the market view. And price that in. The's literally no other major economy where macro policy is a factor of econ uncertainty to this extent

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  9. 30. sij

    The BoE considers that "modest tightening" is still needed, but no longer "limited and gradual". The market considers this guidance unhelpful, having expected a 50% probability of a cut today. Observers think this is dovish. Traders think it is hawkish. Is it a hawkish dove? 🤔😐

    BoE "hold" not that close, in the end, reinforcing our expectation that this is a strategic, not a fundamental policy decision: 7:2 MPC split to stay rates and retain guidance against a market overhyped with expectation of a cut. Expect a change in BoE communication post-Carney.
    1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  10. 30. sij

    BoE "hold" not that close, in the end, reinforcing our expectation that this is a strategic, not a fundamental policy decision: 7:2 MPC split to stay rates and retain guidance against a market overhyped with expectation of a cut. Expect a change in BoE communication post-Carney.

    The history of the rate setting over the past 6yrs has been one of a new leadership style. The Bank never marked-to-economy, it never abandoned its risk-management approach. And the weights attached to various risk probabilities remain discretionary CC
    1 proslijeđeni tweet 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  11. 29. sij

    The January FOMC meeting turned out every bit as we expected: 1) This is not a static Fed, this is a highly active policy environment. 2) The Fed laid out its exit strategy for both repo operations and T-bill purchases. 3) The Fed hiked IORR and pre-signaled higher repo rates.

    Fed hikes the interest rate on excess reserves by 5bps to 1.6% from 1.55% - a strong signal with respect to the rate-liquidity policy mix that challenges directly the market's "QE+" mentality and the entrenched expectation that rates are on a preset course lower in 2020.
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  12. 29. sij

    Fed hikes the interest rate on excess reserves by 5bps to 1.6% from 1.55% - a strong signal with respect to the rate-liquidity policy mix that challenges directly the market's "QE+" mentality and the entrenched expectation that rates are on a preset course lower in 2020.

    2 proslijeđena tweeta 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  13. 29. sij

    To suggest that the FOMC will remain on hold today is misleading - the Fed is NOT on hold. Signalling about the Fed's future policy path has become that much more important. Fed Officials Weigh New Recession-Fighting Tool: Capping Treasury Yields

    The key q-n today concerns M/T action. Is the Fed expensing its possible future policy reserve now, when growth is at full-employment trend, at the expense of future growth and financial stability? And does this distort yield curve growth readings and financial risk-taking.
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  14. 29. sij

    The key q-n today concerns M/T action. Is the Fed expensing its possible future policy reserve now, when growth is at full-employment trend, at the expense of future growth and financial stability? And does this distort yield curve growth readings and financial risk-taking.

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  15. 24. sij

    If fear is an economic concept, then social media and virus outbreaks are economic forces. But the way we feel is different from the way these forces impact composite balance sheet health and economies in reality. This is the debate stocks and bonds are having today. Discuss.

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  16. 24. sij

    The history of the rate setting over the past 6yrs has been one of a new leadership style. The Bank never marked-to-economy, it never abandoned its risk-management approach. And the weights attached to various risk probabilities remain discretionary CC

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  17. 24. sij

    Finally, some realistic insight! (read: Davos reformed/reformated) A really funny thread of hard-hitting truths presented with cheekiness, self-deprecation and compassion, delightfully free of PRing, grandstanding and political correctness: Enjoy!

    🎶greatest Brexit hits🎵 - Fish - World wars (literally didn’t happen to or in any other countries, nope) - Fear of “hegemonic” Germany - But love European food and culcha - Slur about Eastern Europeans in English towns - Eurozone/Greece BS - etc
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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    23. sij

    A united Europe is one that acts with Europeans’ common good at heart. Economic integration is sustainable only if it is based on a culture of stability, fairness and togetherness. Read my full remarks here (5/5)

    29 proslijeđenih tweetova 82 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  19. 23. sij

    Madame le President is the epitome of "policy mindfulness": objective, non-judgemental, alert attentiveness to the policy setting, in its macro-market cohesive network effects. And here's the transition to the new leadership style: diplomatic, strategic wisdom

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    17. sij

    Not many investors are aware of this point.

    That the Fed is considering lending cash directly to smaller banks, dealers and hedge funds through clearing houses, instead of the Big 4 reserves, to ease repo market stress signals that the Fed is gravitating towards a structural rather than a monetary easing solution, aka QE4.
    1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  21. 15. sij

    The UK December CPI annual rate drop from 1.5% to 1.3% moved the needle of market expectations ahead the January BoE MPC meeting and it is that, not the technicalities of short term inflation volatility, which will dictate the policy calculus for a credibility-bound central bank.

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