Kyle KondikOvjeren akaunt

@kkondik

Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics. Author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President (Ohio U Press)

DC; kondik@virginia.edu
Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2011.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 8 sati

    🚨 NUMBERS ON TRUMP FAVORABILITY AMONG MORMONS AND UTAHANS 🚨 (corrected) Mormons: 55% favorable views of Trump (24% very favorable), 40% unfavorable (24% very unfav) Utahans: Trump is underwater with 46% favorable (16% very fav), 50% unfavorable (31% very unfav)

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    Here is the sankey corresponding to the newest data. You can see that I probably initially underestimated the Clinton (2016) -> Warren and Sanders (2016) -> Buttigieg SDE flows.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    A humbled, repentant President Trump responds to his Senate acquittal.

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  4. and here come the statements from members of Congress on impeachment

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  5. Seems like the batch of the results that put Buttigieg into first place in the second-round voting are going to be fixed - but I think if we're talking "who won the popular vote" in Iowa, the first-round results (where Sanders leads) is the better measure h/t

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 8 sati

    Yup. 30 years ago, most members ran way ahead of their parties’ POTUS candidate in their state/district, giving them a personal brand, and insulation in a primary. Those days are gone, leaving most members much more tied to party’s fate, and with little cushion if they buck it.

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  7. quite possible -- Romney gave a number of folks cover

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    A note on use of word "bipartisan." My practice, which I can't always say I was consistent, was not to use that outside of quotes unless the bill/idea had either: 1/3 or more of its support from other party or 1/3 of other party supported it.

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  9. I'm a little surprised that there was a GOP defection on voting to convict (Romney) -- I thought it'd be the other way around (Manchin or Sinema voting to acquit)

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Early analysis of turnout by caucus site shows a very clear trend: lower turnout than '16 in less educated areas and an increase in well-educated areas, likely reflecting the Trump era realignment in Iowa and elsewhere

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Look forward to welcoming Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and 2012 Republican VP nominee to on Feb 21st, 12:30-2PM. Only waitlist remains. E-mail gac4t@virginia.edu.

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  12. most recent Trump job approval in Utah per 50-state trackers Civiqs and Morning Consult is 52%-44% approve (both have identical numbers right now); not bad but also tepid for a state that is otherwise one of the most Republican in the nation

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  13. Just had a vision of Biden discussing Romney's vote to convict Trump and maybe even choking up while doing so - 12 years after Hillary Clinton's public display of emotion on the eve of her upset in the 2008 New Hampshire primary

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    GRIPPING: Sen. Mitt Romney(R-Utah), in an emotional speech on the Senate floor, says Trump committed an offense rising to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors: "Yes he did." "...My oath before God demanded [this] of me." So now the Senate vote to convict will be bipartisan.

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    How will the Iowa caucus snafu impact the race for the Democratic presidential nomination? data journalist and Sabato's Crystal Ball Managing Editor answered this question and more in the new episode of my podcast, out today!

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  16. something I've been musing about explored more in-depth here -

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  18. One of the arguments against Trump this time 4 years ago was “how does the guy who talks about winning recover from losing Iowa?” Just fine, actually. Biden did worse in Iowa (apparently) than Trump did, but the results don’t necessarily invalidate Biden’s electability pitch

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    I think Trump’s evident effort to court black voters is genuinely just about trying to win more black votes — and it’s not a crazy plan.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Doug Jones is voting like he's got little chance of winning a full term in Alabama. Better play is to keep your friends in DC -- for an appointment in a future Dem administration, perhaps -- than to vote like a red-state Dem in hopes of another major upset back home.

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