A VC friend w/ access to earthquake & plate data science records told me — there’s a near 100% chance of a magnitude 8.0+ jolt to the Bay Area in the next 10 years. 
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That said, the FiDi/Embarcardedo seawall is literally a pile of rocks & if they are not retrofitted soon, an earthquake could trigger several feet of sea level rise at once, putting significant parts of the waterfront & transit infrastructure underwater.https://hoodline.com/2017/01/as-earthquake-threat-to-seawall-looms-can-sf-find-billions-to-fix-it …
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yes, friend was talking about a slip-strike
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The way I remember it from my days
@RMS and@AIRWorldwide there’s no maximum. Probability of exceedence goes down rapidly with magnitude. Not a happy thought for sure, but can always be higher than those numbers
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An 8 is absolutely not out of the question for Hayward Fault. But a much smaller one could also have severe consequences for water, transit and aged housing infrastructure along its path.
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I believe Cal can go mid-8 (1906 was 7.7-7.9ish) but not 9.2. This is my recollection of convo with an actual expert,
@seismogenic, who is great to see the movie San Andreas with. -
The Cascadia Subduction Zone can indeed produce a ~M9.0 quake, but only a fraction of the fault length required to do that is in California. None of the faults that are entirely within California are large enough to make an earthquake that size.
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Anything approaching that magnitude (on one of the known or lesser-known faults) could make the current “housing crisis” pale in comparison. The inner Bay Area housing supply is inordinately made up of old, structurally weak buildings.
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