every economic cycle, Bay Area housing values have basically doubled in value. Housing used to be 3-4X median incomes in the late 1970s, now they're 10X+. https://www.paragon-re.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby …pic.twitter.com/BcgTJDtFNf
Partner at @initialized. Previously @techcrunch. When life hands me lemons, I make tarte au citron.
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every economic cycle, Bay Area housing values have basically doubled in value. Housing used to be 3-4X median incomes in the late 1970s, now they're 10X+. https://www.paragon-re.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby …pic.twitter.com/BcgTJDtFNf
the Bay Area used to produce a lot of housing in the mid-20th century. it was an upward engine of mobility for people moving from the rest of the US. But this stopped in the 1970s as the flatlands were built out & neighborhoods organized to downzone.pic.twitter.com/s4Vt2tc9TU
then homevoters chose to cap their own property taxes through Proposition 13 in 1978, and then this tax benefit effectively got priced into value the of real estate. (It's also inheritable). http://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3497 …
it altered municipal finance too. So cities make more net tax revenue by approving office space, rather than housing.http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-small-city-controls-big-housing-project-20170728-story.html …
Cities love office space, bc you get tax revenue but don't have to pay for services like schools/fire/police for residents. This is why San Jose is working with Google to bring 20,000 jobs downtown, why the Central SOMA plan might have 40K jobs but only 7K housing units.
California cities also have many financial structural liabilities they need to cover. SF has $5.7B in unfunded pension liabilities. Berkeley has $650M, Palo Alto has a billion. So they need to attract things that produce tax $ to pay these off.https://calmatters.org/articles/california-retirement-pension-debt-explainer/ …
but of course, building lots of office and no housing is terrible for affordability.pic.twitter.com/uttlzG7qKd
this is a central dilemma for housing policy in America. We want housing to be both a good investment and be broadly affordable (which is impossible!)http://cityobservatory.org/housing-cant-be-a-good-investment-and-affordable/ …
You can't have residential real estate appreciating at roughly 7% a year while having stagnating median wages, without a lot of people falling out of the bottom! https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2017-25.pdf …
but Americans don't really want to address this contradiction. They want to do half-assed things. In SF, people created inclusionary housing policy to make new market-rate construction fund below-market rate housing (which is certainly better than exclusionary zoning)
this is where you see things like "blah blah fought for 40% affordable housing." But the costs just get passed onto buyers of new market-rate housing, making it even more luxury, and it also doesn't really scale or produce that much housing. http://cityobservatory.org/inclusionary-zoning-has-a-scale-problem/ …
Kim-Mai Cutler Retweeted Kyle Huey
if you also set the %s too high, it can shut down production of all kinds of housing as developers wait for nearby rents to get high enough to then justify & cross-subsidize the below-market-rate housing.https://twitter.com/khuey_/status/962109517696663552 …
Kim-Mai Cutler added,
some DSA folk like @uhshanti think we need mass public housing. I think there are lots of interesting, successful social housing programs globally. Like Vienna! http://www.governing.com/gov-affordable-luxurious-housing-in-vienna.html …
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