The Uber-SoftBank deal and the Dropbox IPO may cancel out any downward pressure on prices from changes to the mortgage interest deduction, which means that...https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/articles/what-tax-hit-san-francisco-housing-heating-up-as-tech-ipos-loom …
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people who are rich enough to be Bay Area homeowners but who don’t have enough to do all cash/more cash will just be spending $2-3K more per month on housing/mortgage costs, which just puts homeownership more out of reach for tenants.
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Replying to @kimmaicutler
The key is to allow people in wealthy parts of the city to subdivide their lots to absorb this capital. Instead of spending it on rentier behavior, or forcing development only in poorer parts of the city, should instead build more where it doesn't impact tenants.
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Replying to @skip_sf @kimmaicutler
Do consider, however, that some single-family districts are not rich, and homeownership is not the same as wealth or ability to redevelop. Sometimes members of an extended family live in the house and have been mining its equity for living expenses for, say, the last 15 years.
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Replying to @MBridegam @kimmaicutler
Subdividing allows extended families to continue to mine that wealth. It's how my extended family could continue to stay in place over generations in a community while taxes continued to increase on our land and property.
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Replying to @skip_sf @kimmaicutler
Do you mean ADUs, for example? Sale of partial lots to other buyers?
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Replying to @MBridegam @kimmaicutler
Yes and yes. Along with using that capital to build up, rather than have only option be to purchase in lower cost areas of the city.
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Replying to @skip_sf @kimmaicutler
So yr idea would be, e.g., if a family had the good fortune to own a Sunset District 25'×120' lot, they could sell the back half to an arm's-length purchaser/builder? So, "Yes, In Your Back Yard"? Not necessarily dismissing this -- but, hm: easements? Construction logistics?
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Replying to @MBridegam @kimmaicutler
Both issues can be addressed. We see evidence of this kind of building in the Mission around early 1900's. One of my friends lived in a cottage on separate lot that was in the backyard of another building.
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Replying to @skip_sf @kimmaicutler
ADUs anyway seem more attractive to actual homeowners than the notion of selling for redevelopment -- except in the case of an elder's death when all of the children have their own stable homes. Then you've got a case where no one in the transaction faces a bad forced choice.
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increasingly in the Bay Area, you'll have an elder's death where none or few of the children have stable housing situations. And then they'll have to fight over the asset, sell it, split it, etc.
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @skip_sf
The community-breaking problem is lysis -- house sold, mortgage debts paid, small overages divided among kids, family dispersed. Worst hit can be disabled adult children.
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