6 months in 400,000 people have died around the world and it is still making its way around the globe. Currently experiencing the highest daily case growth. More than 1/4 of the deaths are in the US when population is 4% of the world. 2/
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There are 6 million global cases, 2 million in the US. 1/3 of the cases and 4% of the population. Poor countries in Africa, Caribbean & Central Asia & Latin America have not been hard hit yet. Most of the US has still been spared. 3/
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There are 2 important measures of an infectious disease— how infectious and the fatality rate. Diseases like Ebola have much higher death rates Measles has with much higher infection rates. But COVID-19 has a combination of both that Fauci calls his “worst nightmare.” 4/
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It’s infectiousness is challenging. 80% of people with COVID don’t know where they’ve caught it. It has a long pre-symptomatic phase & is mildly symptomatic with many. 5/
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It is more dangerous as people age. It is more dangerous for people w/ chronic conditions & the Black population. It is more dangerous for men. Far worse than the flu, if you’re 50, you have a 5% chance of being hospitalized. A very small number of kids have severe symptoms. 6/
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The 2 ways to manage the virus are to reduce the infectiousness or reduce the deadliness. Infectiousness— NPIs, prophylaxis, vaccines, reduce hot spots Deadliness— (best guess is .7) therapies, early discovery, treatments, protect vulnerable 7/
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Because we don’t understand how it spreads & have no working vaccine or effective therapies, we have depended on NPIs (
#stayhome
, social distancing, masks, hand washing, avoiding crowds).8/6 replies 215 retweets 1,423 likesShow this thread -
3 vaccines enter phase 3 in July & 10s of thousands of people in hot spots around the world will be needed to test the vaccine. While this is quite fast vaccines will be only a part of the arsenal as many won’t or won’t be able to take them. And likely not avail until next yr.9/
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How long does Phase 3 usually take? Sorry, n00b question.
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @ASlavitt
It’s event driven so depends on number of infections presented in patients (preferably in placebo arm). Faster if conducted in an active hotspot
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Well we have plenty of hotspots
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