How long do you think widespread social distancing measures will be used to reduce COVID-19's impact on public health systems?
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I guess I should ask this question again: How long do you think widespread social distancing measures will be used to reduce COVID-19's impact on public health systems?
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I voted 3-6 months because I'm assuming that by "widespread social distancing" you mean the levels we're currently doing. Is that a correct reading? If it's more like "limits on maximum gathering size and masks" then I'd say 1-2 years.
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yeah the wording isn't amazing, but I worded this question like 1-2 months go when we were n00bs.
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what are both of your thoughts on each?
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Surprised that so many people think it will last 3-6 months.. logically that is impossible since vaccine won't be ready until 12+ months. Until vaccine arrives, scaled back social distancing measures will have to remain.
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Personally adding that I think that the virus now has a number of reservoirs from which to pop back out and create a crisis--thus a big fat tailing off for now, with sporadic crisis, and an eventual large second wave. 3-6 months is the least likely outcome.
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I think we will see oscillation between relaxing and tightening measures over the next year, with restrictions coming back in when fresh outbreaks occur. This is going to be driven more by politics and "economics" than sound public health policy.
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Key factors/influences (beyond outbreaks, R>1) will be: - is there immunity after recovery? - if so, "passports" to go back to work - near universal testing that detects in asymptomatic but infectious people - vaccine, obviously
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This is now the Friedman Unit
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