Anyone have accurate data on US test kit volume? For both today and expected over next 2 weeks? Seems this is key to having a Korea like outcome vs an Italy like outcome.https://twitter.com/firstadopter/status/1237098609302286351 …
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@aslavitt is very pessimistic though. The federal administration wasted more than a month pretending containing would work.@T_Inglesby said in late Jan to prepare in case containment failed. https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1237081444117348354?s=21 …https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1237081444117348354 … -
Ultimately a few numbers will matter... Test Kit Volume --> Samples Collected --> Lab Throughput --> Tests Performed There are bottlenecks in & at each point... ie. you can have lots of PCR reagents, but not enough swabs... ie. you can have lab equipment, but not enough staff.
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we are already late. We should expand social distancing measures and lockdowns, and wait for test availability to catch up. Even with testing, the only thing that has proven to stop the spread is complete lockdown. Why do we think it would be different here? I can't understand.
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Had same conversation today. What will be different for the US? Nothing aggressive is happening so widespread infection will happen. We will be close to Italy in 2 weeks.
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