https://twitter.com/phylogenomics/status/1232871330602577920?s=21 …https://twitter.com/phylogenomics/status/1232871330602577920 …
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Transferred on Feb. 19 to UC Davis. So a week ago, meaning they were infected before that from an unknown source.
It's possible that that's why we aren't seeing more cases. It certainly isn't fact.
ok I should have added a "probably" to that statement.
That is truly remarkable
Highlights 2 issues: 1. US public emergency regulations are too slow. This is somewhat of a logistics issue as well regarding lab certification. 2. PCR isn’t the best diagnostic tool, especially for outbreaks. Alternatives will evolve (considering working on this...stay tuned)
Even Trump won’t be able to hide a spike, or spikes, in mortality. Time will tell. If it’s silently spreading, it won’t be long before we know.
Surely also has a lot to do with emerging evidence that: -incubation period can be longer than 14 days -people not manifesting symptoms can apparently transmit -many cases are mild My reading of public health experts (not my field) suggests these factors make detection hard
Exactly. How many people in the US currently have respiratory illnesses & how are their doctors making a differential diagnosis btw coronavirus vs bronchitis/pneumonia/flu? And how do you collect data on people who think they have the flu & haven't seen a dr or can't afford to?
Access to tests has been a major limit globally, partly because the test is so new; China recently moved to classify anyone with pneumonia on x-ray and a history of flu-like symptoms as CoV positive due in part to this limitation (with consequences to epidemiological models)
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