This basically seals the deal that San Francisco is going to be a Big Tech town going forward; if you are a mid-size company or smaller, you need to pick another city or go remote (if you haven't likely done that already).https://twitter.com/MLNow/status/1214242370478170113 …
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Big Tech is already fueling a lot of the leasing in the city, pushing other cos out. With this effective office space ban likely to pass and existing commercial real estate operators agreeing to it to enhance their pricing oligopoly, you get the idea.... https://product.costar.com/home/news/shared/1457689812 …pic.twitter.com/Rj0d6iuFeQ
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Kim-Mai Cutler Retweeted Paul Roales
Yes. Political actors in SF ostensibly arguing for equity will just gentrify Oakland more. https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Why-downtown-Oakland-is-booming-14869616.php …https://twitter.com/PaulRoales/status/1214636083217981440 …
Kim-Mai Cutler added,
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Kim-Mai Cutler Retweeted Renee DiResta
And it only cost them $400K.https://twitter.com/noUpside/status/1214390623484035073 …
Kim-Mai Cutler added,
Renee DiRestaVerified account @noUpsidePlease note the key sentence in this article about an upcoming SF housing ballot measure. $407k can buy housing policy. That’s it. Less than a seed round. This is what the proposition system enables, but only one side is playing the game... https://missionlocal.org/2020/01/proposition-e-barring-unforeseen-lunacy-will-pass-handily-but-then-what/ … pic.twitter.com/KZmZ00a5dmShow this thread4 replies 4 retweets 59 likesShow this thread -
Dilemma of the Bay Area city. 1) Say no to office growth = will be harder to keep up with deficits & $10B pension/OPEB liability + big companies that are more resourced and adept at tax evasion will crowd out everyone else + gentrify East Bay.https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/SF-mayor-orders-budget-cuts-as-city-takes-on-14911585.php …
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2) Say yes to office growth = gets disproportionately priced into residential real estate with little recapture from existing property owners to compensate for impacts because of Prop. 13.https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/2016/01/san-francisco-home-values-zillow.html …
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But this measure won't meaningfully add more funding for affordable housing. It will just ban office space in SF, and then shift the calculus of office space feasibility into other Bay Area cities.
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Replying to @kimmaicutler
Coupling office space growth to housing growth makes sense to me -- it prevents cities from capturing the "ice cream" benefits (tax revenue, restaurant spend) will externalizing the "vegetable" costs (building housing, NIMBY tears, etc). (1/X)
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Replying to @jhscott @kimmaicutler
Of course the gap between "any housing growth" and "affordable housing growth" is... large. But, if SF isn't going to add housing, isn't it "more fair" (somehow?) for it to not add office space?
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it doesn't have to add office space, but SF's tax base needs to grow in order to keep up with its costs. Otherwise by California law, some of those costs (tied to pensions) can't legally be reduced. They can only cannibalize other existing services.
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Replying to @kimmaicutler
from an (mildly but not aggressively contextualized) incentives / systems / externalities POV -- doesn't building nothing still net out better than building the office space and not the housing? SF voters need to figure their shit out, this way they don't get all the ice cream
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Replying to @jhscott
the office space is probably still going to get built regionally, just in South SF or Oakland. SF voters want to keep their property taxes low, have their home equity double every 10 years and make new people pay for maintaining their existing service levels. They love ice cream.
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