you want proof that rents are sticky and don’t just decrease because of two lines on a graph? two words: Robert Tillman
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Maybe the process got so complicated and wildly unpredictable that only people of Tillman’s character could get through it. (And meanwhile as nothing got built, every other property owner just quietly raised their prices and rents.)
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Toboni managed to get a 70 unit market rate project approved & built. While Tillman was being a performative douchebag banging the table with his well worn copy of Atlas Shrugged.
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Not many developers try for the Mission these days so the de facto situation is that more of whatever’s left of the neighborhood’s middle class just hemorrhages out. You win the 1% chance on the BMR lottery or you win the tech lottery to buy a $3M place.
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @RevClown and
Or you hang on for dear life to an RC place although no one remotely middle class can enter a new RC contract today. Everyone else is disposable and the power brokers in the neighborhood know that.
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people of “Tillman’s character” bullied the city into the land prices they demanded because the neighborhood suffered a shortage of *truly* affordable housing. that is the actual market logic that drives rents, not some inane graph an amateur urbanist made in their spare time
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Replying to @uhshanti @kimmaicutler and
also I find talking about “neighborhood power brokers” in one of the few displacement-risk communities in California urban cores that has been able to successfully organize and fight back on the scale required a bit distasteful
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I was literally on a panel w them the other month where they basically said they couldn’t do anything for the middle class. They were being honest about it at least. So the neighborhood just becomes more wildly unequal but that’s the strategy that everyone is effectively pursuing
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I’m not trying to be mean to you; I’m emphasizing Robert Tillman is no hero. insofar as he’s a rational actor, that pokes more holes into the filtering hypothesis in gentrifying neighborhoods than my tweets ever could
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Replying to @uhshanti @kimmaicutler and
also if the price per door is as high as it is then the subsidized housing skews “middle class” anyway to pencil, leaving no housing available below
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It matters for the broader region. People who can get into SF won’t be bidding up Oakland and people in Oakland won’t be bidding up Vallejo and so on. People who can afford Oakland or San Leandro can’t wait 5+ years for SF to build units that only 50 out of 6,000 will win.
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @uhshanti and
SF isn’t going to build much subsidized middle income housing anyway; it’s a $500K/unit gap and the non-profits prob won’t support their dollars being diverted to other income segments.
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