this is assuming housing submarkets don't exist and that rents aren't sticky, which as any developer who has to send 30-year projections back to their investors will tell you, it is. housing doesn't work like toothbrushes, it is (unfortunately) an asset market.
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Replying to @uhshanti @BrandonHarami and
1) Although rents are a bit sticky, SF rents being far higher than eg 20yrs ago shows that this isn't enough to matter. 2) Although this doesn't explicitly account for submarkets, the principle is the same. If too few homes in one submarket, people spill into other submarkets.
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Replying to @dan3944 @BrandonHarami and
the market urbanist's best ally is a developer (or more importantly, their investor) who is willing to finance not simply when rents are rising, but when they fall. what we see in reality is that even a 1-2% drop at the top end of the market leads to a cool-off
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meanwhile, the intense price competition for land in SF, which will not magically go away with a mass upzoning, means that any subsidized housing we build has to outbid the private market, which will have to price those land costs into rents over decades.
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from an ideological standpoint, "build for the rich people first and throw a couple peanuts to everyone else" is not in my mind a morally justifiable plan, nor will the outcome be anything near as equitable racially or economically as the people advocating for it seem to think.
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Replying to @MattHaneySF @uhshanti and
If you don't ban apartments in many areas and force developers to go through years of legal battles in the few areas where apartments are allowed, 500k is 30 years is easy to do. Tokyo does far more than that.pic.twitter.com/eEZ4TvWUY0
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Replying to @dan3944 @MattHaneySF and
housing in Tokyo/Japan works very very differently than it does in the US. Kim-Mai Cutler and I have approached this from different ideological angles but she's also talked about the massive ideological shift required to make this apples-to-oranges fantasy workpic.twitter.com/4einQmm2OP
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Well I also said Vienna comparisons were absurd bc it took WWI, pandemics to crash land values enough to make a large scale social housing program viable. Or the UKs council flats program is only geographically equitably distributed in London bc they were bombed the shit out of.
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @uhshanti and
I read conversations like this and I’m like OK, Matt and Dean are basically cool and complicit with a larger hemorrhaging of the middle class from the Bay Area bc subsidized affordable is harder to pencil there plus their political bases will never (understandably) accept
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shifting scarce, limited public subsidy dollars from very low/low AMI housing to middle. So no middle income housing will effectively get built, the bar to get into market rate will get more forbidding and everyone will be complicit in entrenching the region’s widening inequality
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @dan3944 and
we had a public housing system in America. homelessness skyrocketed as it was dismantled. it isn’t preposterous utopianism to suggest we have one again, period
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Replying to @uhshanti @kimmaicutler and
also, if you look at job growth in the Bay Area over the past 10 years, there is a huge increase in both high wage and low wage jobs and the middle is net flat.
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