It's hard to see what's going to happen next.
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Replying to @markasaurus @eparillon
Crash and/or SF returns to being a big company town.
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SF housing prices are built up on the idea that the next generation will pay exorbitantly more for them (which they have been for quite some time). When the next generation of wealth creation doesn’t happen in the Bay, it’s hard not to see a big crash coming.
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House prices have already stalled over the past year, it's hard to see how they go much higher
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It’s also if fewer and fewer people decide to sell because California’s tax system discourages it, which is also what happened over the last decade.https://socketsite.com/archives/2019/05/number-of-homes-for-sale-in-sf-inches-up-but-trend-turns-down.html …
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @markasaurus and
These (staying in a community longer and having new businesses spread around the country) seem to be relatively objectively positive things on a broader societal level though, no? (There are some selfish downsides for me in there, but.)
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Replying to @reedm @markasaurus and
Not if the property taxes they pay fall further and further behind what it costs to sustain public services like police, fire, schools, streets etc. The whole reason mayors are more welcoming to tech than the legislative branch is bc the current system isn’t solvent absent tech.
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @reedm and
1/5th of San Jose’s budget goes to pay off the retirements of people who don’t work there anymore.https://sanjosespotlight.com/san-jose-pension-plans-unfunded-liability-expected-to-soar/ …
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @reedm and
The troubling thing about SF is it took *this insane* of a tech boom to reduce our 5 yr forward looking deficits from $829M a year back in 2011 https://sfmayor.org/sites/default/files/FileCenter/Documents/108-MYR%20FYFP%20FINAL%205_3_11.pdf … to $644M/year by 2023 https://sfcontroller.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Budget/Five-Year%20Financial%20Plan%20FY19-20%20through%20FY23-24%20FINAL.pdf …
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @reedm and
here's the thing tho...since 2005 the 3 year revenue projection has been off (by an average of 14% & a total of $5.6 too low...
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Because we had a tech boom?
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Replying to @kimmaicutler @reedm and
because the consultants are temperamentally predisposed to conservative projections I think and austerity-minded politicians find that convenient. better to have too much at the end and fight over how to spend it than not have enough and decide who gets cut.
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