Housing production in California over the last 60 years. Really died after the last recession. http://www.hcd.ca.gov/housing-policy-development/statewide-housing-assessment/docs/draftsha123016final.pdf …pic.twitter.com/JJQHYcB7mi
Partner at @initialized. Previously @techcrunch. When life hands me lemons, I make tarte au citron.
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Housing production in California over the last 60 years. Really died after the last recession. http://www.hcd.ca.gov/housing-policy-development/statewide-housing-assessment/docs/draftsha123016final.pdf …pic.twitter.com/JJQHYcB7mi
hate to use jargon but it feels like a new paradigm. In 2013, wouldn't have guessed suburban dev in CA to be so slow in 2017.
Absolutely correct. Dramatic shift, started in 1980s with early "urban infill" projects and steadily grew as "smart growth" went mainstream, and now dominant since single-family housing construction market plummeted after 2008 real estate crash. New paradigm indeed.
California ran out of buildable coastal flatland in both the North & South in the 1970s, so urban infill was the only way to go (except for doing sprawl in central CA).
You could expand out into steeper terrain right off the coast, but that is prime wildfire territory.
is CA physically out of buildable coastal terrain, or is that an environmental / regulatory choice? driving, say, from half-moon bay to santa cruz, it looks like there’s land.
probably a little of both. But these are what our @NWSBayArea red flag maps look like these days (in December of all months). https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/12/15/bay-area-weather-red-flag-fire-warning-issued-ahead-of-dry-windy-weekend/ …pic.twitter.com/BE0h6UON6B
Kim-Mai Cutler Retweeted NatureEcoEvo
if you wanted to make those lands fire safe, you can't just go from nothing to modest/sparse density, you have to make really *dramatic* changes to make a community more firesafe.https://twitter.com/NatureEcoEvo/status/1059470661951860736 …
Kim-Mai Cutler added,
inland a bit in the hills i see that. but right near the coast, around say Pescadero. it’s rural + untreed, sheep grazing land and touristy rusticness. my sense is that it’s a choice, not an exigency, that the coast itself is not developed (tho sea level rise/climchg mb an issue)
(apropos nothing, places in Marin i really enjoy visiting, single-family residential in Mill Valley + Larkspur, i can’t for the life of me imagine how they can remain habitable if recent wildfire conditions persist. fairy-tale maze-like roads lined w/wooden homes in the redwoods)
I don't have a good sense of their current risk but in other similar neighborhoods in CA, you have one Red Flag day and one errant spark and the whole neighborhood goes. There are close to 2M+ homes in CA that fit these characteristics. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/20/business/california-fires-insurance.html …
which is why if you live in a flatland area, or a basin that is somewhat buffered from sea level rise, it's imperative that we make these transit-oriented, mid-higher density choices *now*
Kim-Mai Cutler Retweeted Ben Paulos
not just because of the safety issue, but because transit emissions are usually 50-60%+ of what any given CA suburb contributes.https://twitter.com/BenPaulos/status/1072971555301285888 …
Kim-Mai Cutler added,
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