*discrete, neighborhood upzonings. Not city-wide or regional upzonings.
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yeah after skimming the paper just now this is my biggest question about it. Chicago's 2013 TOD ordinance was notoriously narrow, only extending out 1/4 mile. It seems unsurprising that it might concentrate demand and thus raise prices.
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So what you're saying is... we can tell NIMBYs that upzoning will make their property MORE valuable?
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Chicago isn't that useful a comp for SF, is it?
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My prior at least is that we’ve known that highly localized changes, even building itself, have different effects than broader-based approaches; a cautionary note for those who think we should have a very limited geography sb50 for example
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Increased property values would be expected given the addition of a new option-to-build that was added to the existing supply-and-demand equilibrium, no? And as others in this thread have suggested, the value of this option is itself a function of its scarcity.
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20 years ago, if you picked 10 NYC taxi medallions and said "each of these can now authorize 3 cars rather than 1", those 10 medallions would spike in value instantly, even if their owners might take a few months to buy new cars to put in service.
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Similarly, it is such a tiny increase in permitted total supply that no one would reasonably expect it to push down the overall market price of a typical medallion.
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Chicago is already plenty upzoned and upzoning suburbs would definitely increase land value.. so I don't know how you can make comparisons to the Bay Area.
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