What does "decoupling" even mean? Is there consensus around a set of metrics that would define it? Maybe I'm not talking to the right people, but no one in my industry has been able to tell me with any conviction what decoupling is, much less whether or not "it" is even possible.
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Does 'decoupling' mean less trade? How much less? In what sectors exactly? Does it mean less investment? What do you mean "investment"? Does it mean keeping each other's technology out of each other's networks? What technology? What networks?
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This word has bled into the global policy conversation and become a talking point with poor strategic and logical foundation. Data analysts struggle to map the ramifications, because the word itself is unclear.
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Existing extremely hypothetical projections show that we have no real idea what the ramifications would be, but that in today's globally-interconnected markets, there would probably be lots of unintended consequences for China, the U.S., and its allies. https://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/024001_us_china_decoupling_report_fin.pdf …
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People keep asking whether or not I think decoupling is a good idea, and I don't have an opinion, because the truth is, I don't know what they're talking about, and I suspect neither do they.
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Replying to @kendraschaefer
From what I understand some people want less production of "strategic" (high tehnology, medical) products produced in China. Basically they want China back to sewing clothes and making toys. Less investment, because they think stiff is developed in the west and China just steals.
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I understand the basic concept. What I am saying is that when you look for official statistical metrics that define our conception of decoupling, they're wildly random, high-level, and lack understanding of any downstream effects.
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Replying to @kendraschaefer
When one base their policy on assumed supremacy, but doesn't want to sound supremacist it will just end up sounding random and incoherent.
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