FTR, I made a $20 bet with @kchangnyt last week that there will be more private citizens than government employees going into orbit by end of 2021.
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Yes, definitely. In that year alone. I wouldn't expect >500 private that year (but I also wouldn't claim it's impossible). And it was "orbit," not "space," because I suspect you'd agree that there's a good chance of that for suborbital on Blue.
Yes, we were talking orbit. Just wanted to be precise so that we won't be disputing the terms on Dec. 31, 2021. Also wanted to be clear that if this happened in 2020 (but not in 2021 for some reason) that you'd still be $20 richer.
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Have you defined what counts as a "government employee"?
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I think that means some government pays your way to space. I would be surprised if there are any gray cases like a scientist using an NSF grant. Not in 2021.
End of conversation
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