@kchangnyt Lombardy region of Italy (population 10M) has 1:500 infection rate. Using log graph may not be helpful when population saturation and fear are likely more valid factors than government actions #lyingstatistics
Plotting on a log scale is still useful because it makes deviation from exponential easily seen. But yes, what is driving the dynamics might be complicated.
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If seems important to acknowledge that the shape of the infection curve could be more a function of the delay in large scale testing than other factors including timing of social distancing.
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Maybe, but doubtful. If you look at the U.S. curve for the last week, there’s a slight bump upward and then it settles back down. That, I think, reflects the huge ramp-up of testing in NY. But it barely budged the trajectory.
End of conversation
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