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kchangnyt's profile
Kenneth Chang
Kenneth Chang
Kenneth Chang
@kchangnyt

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Kenneth Chang

@kchangnyt

Science reporter at the New York Times. Pluto, dinosaurs, NASA, viral math & more...

New York, NY
nytimes.com/by/kenneth-cha…
Joined April 2014

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    1. Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @FriedrichHayek and

      Linear + linear is still linear, with a steeper slope. It's not exponential. You can scribble that down calculation, right?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @kchangnyt @FriedrichHayek and

      The operation isn't addition but multiplication.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @kchangnyt and

      Look. If you have 5% of the population effected, randomly sample, and you run 100 tests, what's the average number of positives you'd get? 5. If 10% of the population is effected, and you run 200 tests, what do you get? 20. If you have 15% of the population effected, and

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @kchangnyt and

      you run 300 tests, what do you get? 45. If you have 20% of the population effected, and you run 400 tests, on average what do you get? 80!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @kchangnyt and

      Does that look linear to you?!https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+%281%2C+5%29%2C+%282%2C+20%29%2C+%283%2C+45%29%2C+%284%2C+80%29 …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @FriedrichHayek and

      My goof. But still not exponential. On a log plot, the curve is quickly bending and you would easily and quickly infer the underlying linear character of the spreading if that were indeed the case.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @kchangnyt @FriedrichHayek and

      Linear and linear gives exponential. But can you easily tell that's exponential and not parabolic?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @FriedrichHayek and

      On a log plot, yes.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @kchangnyt @alc_anthro and

      That was the whole point of my writing the article.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @kchangnyt @FriedrichHayek and

      I mean your article completely ignores testing rates so you might want to rewrite it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @FriedrichHayek and

      The article also doesn't go into why pandemics intrinsically grow at exponential rates. It's about how best to present data that happens to be growing exponentially.

      4:50 PM - 20 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
          Replying to @kchangnyt @FriedrichHayek and

          The best way to represent the data is through statistical analysis rather than visual analysis. Moreover, data is meaningless without theory.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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