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kchangnyt's profile
Kenneth Chang
Kenneth Chang
Kenneth Chang
@kchangnyt

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Kenneth Chang

@kchangnyt

Science reporter at the New York Times. Pluto, dinosaurs, NASA, viral math & more...

New York, NY
nytimes.com/by/kenneth-cha…
Joined April 2014

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    1. Steven Strogatz‏Verified account @stevenstrogatz Mar 20

      A Different Way to Chart the Spread of Coronavirus -- Ken Chang @kchangnyt on the clarity and insight offered by log-linear plotshttps://nyti.ms/2WxyM90 

      12 replies 131 retweets 338 likes
    2. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @digitaltrader @stevenstrogatz and

      Shh. Graphs are important even if they're meaningless.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @digitaltrader and

      Pandemics don't work on a per capita basis. They spread based on the number of people infected and how many people those people infect. Only when you get to a sizable fraction of the population (10%? 30%?), then the chances of further infection begin to drop.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @kchangnyt @alc_anthro and

      That is, when there's a sizable probability that someone you encounter has already been infected. We're not there yet and hopefully we don't get there.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @kchangnyt @digitaltrader and

      Well, the ignorant idea of extreme social distancing will help ensure that we get there.https://github.com/dgoldman0/socialdistancing …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @digitaltrader and

      Seems to have been a key component of what worked in China and South Korea.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @kchangnyt @digitaltrader and

      We've yet too see how things pan out in a month or two once social distancing ends. I suggest you review the models and the analysis. I'm sure you're comfortable with variations on the SIR compartmental model, basic differential equations, etc. You are, right?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @digitaltrader and

      I think it's considerably longer than 1-2 months. You're obviously comfortable with the models and equations. What are you predicting will happen at the end of April?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
      Replying to @kchangnyt @digitaltrader and

      My prediction is that social distancing will collapse, we'll think we'll be in the all clear, and then we'll see a wildfire of new cases.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Kenneth Chang‏ @kchangnyt Mar 20
      Replying to @alc_anthro @digitaltrader and

      Well, if people goes back to normal life at the end of April, yes, that's what would happen. What's your preferred strategy?

      3:35 PM - 20 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Daniel Goldman‏ @alc_anthro Mar 20
          Replying to @kchangnyt @digitaltrader and

          Socially. I thought I pushed my updates to the git repo. Please reload the README file.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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