Ken Bowersox says the absolute earliest SLS could fly is the "end of 2020." So, 2021 for sure. Do I hear 2022?
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Replying to @SciGuySpace
SpaceX will have landed on the Moon by then so ...
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Replying to @NASAWatch
Almost certainly, Starship will have reached LEO by 2021. Wonder if that changes this discussion.
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Replying to @SciGuySpace @NASAWatch
We joked for years about when the Heavy would finally get off the ground. It’s not clear to me that Starship is an easier project.
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Elon has a decade-long+ history of lowballing development time. Maybe he can build the much more ambitious Starship faster than he built F1, F9, FH. But skepticism isn’t exactly unwarranted.
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Starship involves things SpaceX has never done before and in some cases things no one has done before. Maybe R&D proceeds without hitting speed bumps, but that’s the exception in aerospace. (FH was largely incremental, at least on paper and Elon’s initial expectations.)
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