Ken Bowersox says the absolute earliest SLS could fly is the "end of 2020." So, 2021 for sure. Do I hear 2022?
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Elon has a decade-long+ history of lowballing development time. Maybe he can build the much more ambitious Starship faster than he built F1, F9, FH. But skepticism isn’t exactly unwarranted.
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Elon has a remarkable track record of delivering. Just never as quickly as he says he will. And often with NASA paying for much of it (which is NOT a bad thing).
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Starship involves things SpaceX has never done before and in some cases things no one has done before. Maybe R&D proceeds without hitting speed bumps, but that’s the exception in aerospace. (FH was largely incremental, at least on paper and Elon’s initial expectations.)
End of conversation
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