Ken Bowersox says the absolute earliest SLS could fly is the "end of 2020." So, 2021 for sure. Do I hear 2022?
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Almost certainly, Starship will have reached LEO by 2021. Wonder if that changes this discussion.
We joked for years about when the Heavy would finally get off the ground. It’s not clear to me that Starship is an easier project.
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Falcon Heavy also wasn't a priority. (Elon tried to cancel it at one point). Starship is unquestionably top priority. It is more difficult, yes. No question. But it is getting more resources and attention by far.
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It's hard to believe that Elon doesn't consider Falcon Heavy a priority. After all, it's a low-hanging fruit. Starship and Mars - possibly not.
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Elon has a decade-long+ history of lowballing development time. Maybe he can build the much more ambitious Starship faster than he built F1, F9, FH. But skepticism isn’t exactly unwarranted.
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Still, Heavy is already doing commercial missions, while SLS might go through Green Run this year... all despite of certain high level NASA official stating otherwise, so...
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