Dr YV Reddy, the former RBI Governor, when he was RBI Governor used to say, "everywhere around the world, the future is uncertain; in India, even the past is uncertain." The revision of GDP data today proved just that... Read on.
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That bit above is obvious. Here is something that is not so obvious. Up until now, the GDP growth in 2019-20 was supposed to be at 5% (actually 4.98% to be very precise). Now the GDP growth in 2019-20 is expected to be at 5.7%. How? See the next tweet.
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Earlier, the GDP in 2018-19 was expected to be at ₹140.78 lakh crore. The GDP in 2019-20 is forecast at ₹147.78 lakh crore. This meant a GDP growth of 5%.
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The GDP for 2018-19 has been revised to ₹ 139.81 lakh crore. The GDP for 2019-20 is forecast at ₹147.78 lakh crore. This means a GDP growth of 5.7%.
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So what is happening here? The past has changed and it has now changed the present and the future. That's how economics happens in India. That's how bad our data is.
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Suddenly an economy which was supposed to grow at 5% in 2019-20, is now expected to grow at 5.7%. You change the past and you end up changing the future. Happens only in economics... Don't try it anywhere else.
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Now that the Indian economy is expected to grow at 5.7% and not 5% in 2019-20, will we see the likes of World Bank, IMF, OECD, investment banks and stock brokerages, revise their growth projections?
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All this can change again on February 28, 2020, when the Second Advanced Estimates for the GDP growth of 2019-20 will be published. Watch this space!
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Kraj razgovora
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I couldn't find any reference where the revision to 139.81 lakh crore is claimed. Can anyone help me with the reference?
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