If young students are in group care or going to their parents' workplaces on their remote days, it seems possible a hybrid model could lead to more cases in school than a five-day-a-week schedule. That's hard to model unless you know exactly what families are doing
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We did our best to model this. We assumed fewer precautions are taken outside of schools such that transmission risk is 2x higher out of school than inside of it. We found that >9 families would have to mix per day for hybrid to be worse.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250388v1 …
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Happy to answer questions about our approach -- like any approach it's not perfect! (We explain our findings on this in the sensitivity analysis section and discussion and provide additional detail in Figure S7.)
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This has essentially become a game of chicken in our district. Families who don’t take it seriously and don’t follow public health guidelines send kids to school. So anyone with any kind of elevated risk simply can’t.
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And that's what we mean by "Choice"
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Stop modeling and look at real life data. Not freaking models!!! Models got us into this huge mess!!!!
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Exactly, we have enough actual data, including data from places where kids have been in school full time all year, to look at.
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“Reduce” is relative. Reducing based on a prediction that notes 100% exposure with no mitigation and active presence of virus. This idea would then grant “reduction”. But would actually be an “increase” if we look at it from 0% exposure with no on-site instruction! “Safer”!
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This!! It’s only lower risk assuming kids r home home on non-school days, which won’t be the case for the majority. Our district changed for 5 days for k-5 for this reason and we have been successful with no in school spread (w/masks + 3ft + windows open + hand hygiene)
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