A must read to understand why a political settlement wasn't reached in #Afghanistan for 20 yrs: today we published a report by Steve Brooking, former acting #2 at UNAMA. Read on for key takeaways...
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There were several opportunities to negotiate peace among the Taliban, Govt of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and US—but these opportunities were missed, went unrecognized, or were deliberately spurned by one or more of the parties.
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First oppty: 2001-02 when Taliban were defeated. They wouldn't hand over bin Laden, but senior Talibs made several overtures to Karzai & the US, offering to recognize the new Afghan govt and asking for immunity. US (Rumsfeld) & Northern Alliance rejected these outright.
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The US failed to see or act on a key principle: as scholar Thomas Barfield writes, "The time to win the peace is at the end of a war." Today, the cruel irony is that the Taliban are making this same mistake.
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Brooking's report argues, "The US military surge in 2010 arguably led to the kind of mutually hurting stalemate that might have encouraged negotiation, but the US policy machine was slow to acknowledge that a negotiated settlement was likely needed to end the war."
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US policymakers were divided on "whether the aim of the surge was to destroy or to degrade the Taliban—in other words, whether to go for outright military victory or to weaken the Taliban until they were amenable to negotiations"(p.11). This clouded the policy around peace talks.
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Brooking: "By the time the US view had changed [to pursuing a negotiated settlement], the Taliban could see a path to military victory unobstructed by the need for serious political negotiations with the Republic."
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"Pres Trump’s clear intention to leave without any real conditions weakened the US' & Republic’s hands in negotiations. Moreover, the Republic leadership distrusted [Khalilzad], was concerned chiefly about its own positions, ...
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"...underestimated US intentions to withdraw, and overestimated the Republic’s own strength—and consequently made no concessions that could advance talks."
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It was sobering to grapple w/ these issues and help shepherd this report to completion--I hope it builds our collective understanding about the costs of failing to seek peace when it's possible, & pushes policy circles to challenge our own facile assumptions.
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Lessons lack corrective measures & punishment for those responsible incl. Trump, Biden, Ghani & Khalilzad for the grave miscalculation that resulted in so much pain & suffering to the ordinary Afghans. If the report was on Ukraine I'm sure The Hague would be mentioned