Kamil Galeev

If you want to negotiate with someone you usually need to offer them salt they *really* need and not what you think they need. How do you know what they really need? Usually they won't shut up about it and will project 24/7. That's how you figure out what you must offer them

Russian police archives contain lots of cases of serfs arrested for treasonous talk. Most importantly, that the imminent Napoleonic invasion brings them freedom. Earliest arrests that I know of were done in 1807, but in months preceding the invasion, the number expanded greatly

A typical treasonous rumour - the real cause of war is that Napoleon wants to liberate Russian serfs. And that he wrote to Tsar Alexander he'll fight against him until he liberates peasants. As you see, it's pure projection. Serfs were projecting on Napoleon their real needs

What is missed in the history of Napoleonic invasion is how eagerly peasantry tried to switch to Napoleon. Governor of Tver Kologrivov learnt that villages in Porechsky district "fantasise about belonging to the French forever". Indeed, they decided they're now French subjects

Polish-Lithuanian support of Napoleon is well known. It was quite common, even though Napoleon didn't play fully. He didn't even declare the restoration of independent Rzeczpospolita - if he did, he'd get *way* more support. But people collaborated even in purely Russian lands

Interestingly enough, governor of Moscow Rostopchin ascribed these unrests to the "bad influence of the levy". Peasants were drafted to the levy en masse without proper training or control and they turned into the unruly force dreaming of Russia's defeat. Many had to be disbanded

Napoleon aimed for an unreachable goal - alliance with Alexander. It was unreachable because Napoleon didn't have a salt to offer him. He had a salt to offer to the many discontent in Russia, but didn't, because he believed he can work out a compromise with Alexander (nope)

So now let's get to the policy recommendations for the current conflict. The best strategy would be playing on internal divisions which are enormous. Giving salt to the ones who need the salt you have and not fantasising about deescalation with the ones who don't

First. Make surrender of Russian troops in Ukraine as easy and lucrative as possible. Ukrainians understand it and try to work on that. They try to lure Russian soldiers to surrender "to save their lives", they're offering pilots a million usd to turn over their jet to Ukrainians

I don't think it gonna work well. First, Slavs don't really believe in Slavic financial guarantees. If it was let's say a Swiss company offering money, it would have stronger appeal. Great strategy would be - offer cash for 1) turning over 2) destroying Russian military equipment

The very fact that you might get a lot of cash in hard currency for destroying a Russian missile system, adding sugar to the oil or doing other sabotage would very much destroy the trust among the troops. Especially regarding that many already look for the way out

Another obvious question is - ok, I surrender. Now what? Honestly speaking, right now I don't see any attractive perspective. What you gonna do after, return to Russia where they investigate how and why you surrendered? Doesn't look that promising to be honest

Some speculate about giving surrendering Russian soldiers refuge on the West. It could be a good idea, but I don't think it may really be organised soon. And in order to have an impact on the course of war the green corridor for surrendering Russians should be organised asap

A more realistic option would be negotiating with some warm countries with easy immigration policy (Colombia, Argentina, etc) and simply paying them to accept surrendered Russians. So they would get them some sort of visas + small cash for surrendering + a lot for active sabotage

I know that doesn't sound efficient moral crusade wise. But it absolutely can be efficient goal wise. With the conflict ongoing, much of the world would be in a deep economic crisis, and there will be warm countries with easy immigration policies desperately looking for cash

Many Russian troops in Ukraine have very low motivation. Conscripts were sent by force. Many national guard paramilitary feel tricked into the war. When they transferred from the police to the newly created guard, they thought they're getting military benefits with no risk

Finally, many of the "Donbass and Luhansk army" are also low motivated. In the jargon of Russian irredentists there there is such a word as twenty-five-thousanders, двадцатипятысячники. What does it mean?

On the early stages of Donbass war, it was launched my highly motivated fighters. Russian security apparatus, intelligence and many local volunteers. As it usually happens on wars, they ran of volunteers quickly. Their casualties are huge, while the supply is limited

Fortunately for Russia, Donbass fall into humanitarian catastrophe. Most businesses closed, remaining like cpal mines, paid minuscule salaries among the rampant inflation. It was very difficult to earn your living. So Russians would pay 25 000 rubles for joining "Donbass army"

These people were called twenty-five-thousanders because they obviously joined for pay check, around 400 usd per month. They were looked down upon because they had lower motivation and honestly they'd prefer to collect the pay check and skip the fighting

This case shows first of all, that the Donbass crisis was manufactured and maintained by Russia. They portray it as a natural mass rebellion, but almost all of actual fighters were unmotivated ones who literally fought for food, because of humanitarian catastrophe Russia created