Putin shows truly entrepreneurial thinking, startup mindset. If he can find demographic resources in Caucasus, he'll lure, scheme, persuade them to fight his wars and will use whatever propaganda necessary. Even if it goes against his real convictions - Russian ethnonationalism
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Chechnya has a special place within Putin's order. It's a vassal kingdom with independent army. You see as Kadyrov's troops have to take personal oath of fealty to Kadyrov. On paper they could be enlisted into the "Russian army", "police" etc. BS. That's personal army of Kadyrov
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When Chechen defeat in a war against Russia became clear, many former rebels switched to Putin. Including Kadyrov. Kadyrov quickly made a career, pacifying Chechnya and submitting it to Putin's will by whatever means necessary
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Kadyrov and his henchmen like Patriot (left) launched a reign of terror. Many were killed for disobedience. Many were killed randomly. Patriot would come to a village, choose random guys and shoot them as terrorists. Just to show that he can and get awards for his War on Terror
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And yet, the true benchmark of Kadyrov's regime was the bottle. They captured a Chechen author of anti-Kadyrov's telegram channel, forced him to sit on a bottle, recorded it and distributed on social media. Breaking religious and traditional taboos aimed to show Kadyrov's power
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But it was a point of no return. Kadyrov made too many enemies among other Chechens. And their culture obliges them to take revenge. Even now Kadyrov takes a lot of precautions. His vast palaces with moats and walls are guarded as Putin's and he *never* sleeps outside of them
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That explains special relations between Putin and Kadyrov. Consider how he talks to Kadyrov and to Russian generals - Shoygu, etc. He doesn't fully trust his generals, because they still could have a way out. Kadyrov couldn't. He's tied by blood. If Putin falls, he dies slowly
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Dear friendship between Putin and Kadyrov already made them heroes in China. Indeed, in this war Chinese "public opinion" (= state propaganda) unequivocally took the Russian side. The West now faces a de facto Chinese-Russian alliance, you should be delusional to ignore it
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Chinese police is already approaching Ukrainians living in China. China doesn't want a "deescalation". It wants escalation and it sees Ukraine as an enemy power, belonging to the opposing camp
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That's totally understandable. China is now launching the enormous warmongering campaign. In 2021 they produced the most expensive Chinese movie ever, The Battle at Lake Changjin, on the battle of Korean War against the US
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If you watch recent Chinese movies like the Wolf Warrior, you'll see that China is preparing its public opinion for the war with the US. China may not say it to the US but they're absolutely saying this to their citizens. You can't fool yourself about it
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And ofc Russia will be reorienting its economy to China. It will sell its natural resources to China at dump prices, buy Chinese technologies at high prices. Since China is the only major industrial power that will agree to trade with Russia, Chinese'll use their leverage fully
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This alliance won't benefit Russia. But it'll allow China to buy Russian resources at dump prices. It will also force Russians to use Chinese technologies, and join Chinese ecosystems. Like major Russian banks are already switching to the Union Pay from Visa and Mastercard
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As a result position of China in the class with the US, which is unavoidable will be much, much stronger. Provided that Russian regime still exists. The problem with Chinese-Russian integration is not that it's impossible, but that it takes time
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There are many things in this world that just take time, no matter how urgently you need them. You can't get a baby in a month even if you impregnate nine women. It still takes 9 months. The same with the economic integration
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Now most of Russian industry uses Western machines, Western technologies, Western IT products. It is integrated to Western ecosystems and production chains. Could it potentially integrate to Chinese instead? Probably, yes. But it takes time, a lot of time. Does Russia have it?
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Russia's not doing well. First, its initial plan of war failed. Idiots who post impressive maps of Russian advance and claim Russia's winning forget that the wars are not launched for military goals. They're launched for political goals. What were the political goals of Putin?
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Well, that's clear. Overthrowal of existing Ukrainian power and political takeover. Russian invading forces included tons of "politruks" who had to assume power and become the new administration preparing Ukraine for the imminent annexation with the Motherland
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These politruks could be Russians or officials of Yanukovich's administration, who left Ukraine after the overthrow of pro Russian president in 2014. Some of them were from pro-Russian Donbass government. Others - simply Russian nationalists. Let's consider one of them, Dimitriev
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Igor Dimitriev is from Odessa, Ukraine. In 2014 Russian nationalists tried to launch political takeover over much of East and South Ukraine. In Donbass they succeeded cuz of Russian invasion. In Kharkiv, Odessa etc they were slaughtered or made to leave. Dimitriev left to Russia
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In Russia he cooperated with intelligence and state security, reportedly working in Syria and in other theatres. But he was preparing to return to Ukraine as a triumphant, take revenge and assume power. He waited for 8 years, constantly writing about it in his Telegram channel
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In 2022 he had a chance. He came with a victorious as he thought Russian army and sincerely believed that locals will greet them as liberators. Instead Ukrainians opened fire and refused any cooperation with Russian invaders. He was shocked. Other politruks were shocked too
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Only two weeks've passed since Russian invasion, and all these politruks already made back to Russia. Why? Cuz the plan failed. Nobody would greet them as liberators, nobody listened to them, Ukrainians perceived them as traitors. Assumption of Ukrainian Russianness was wrong
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This guy is especially funny, because he renamed his telegram channel and is now diligently cleaning it from any incriminating content. That's understandable, his situation is especially bad, because he's a public person. But all these collaborators are now in shock and disbelief
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Much of Russian administration is in shock too. Same officials who just a week ago claimed (in private talk) that Kyiv will be taken in a day or two, now quietly seek the way out. It's very important to understand. Putin doesn't have a way out, but mid-ranked officials might have
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They are so lost not only because the assumption that Ukrainians would just embrace Russia was wrong. They're lost because they didn't expect such strong sanction regime and now Russian economy is facing an imminent collapse
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Russia does have industrial production. But it doesn't have independent technological chains. They're closely integrated with the Western markets. Factories work on Western machines with Western technologies, using Western IT, etc. You can't just switch to China overnight
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The first signs of collapse are already visible. Avtovaz, the largest Russian car factory in Tolyatti stopped production cuz of "shortage of electronic details". A petrochemical plant in Nizhnekamsk is striking cuz hyperinflation destroyed the wages. And inflation will only rise
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Let's be honest, all somewhat smart Russians understand what will follow next. That's why Russia's now facing the largest brain drain of Putin's era. Overall whoever can leave, lives. Tbilisi, Yerevan, Baku are already flooded by Russian refugees, Central Asia's being flooded too
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In social media they already noticed the irony: Russians are now googling immigration laws of Kazakhstan, life in Kyrgyzstan, how to relocate to Uzbekistan. That sounds like the opposite world. A month ago Central Asians wanted to move to Russian, now it's the other way around
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In Kremlin they know it. That's why just four days ago Putin decreased the taxes on IT and most importantly relieved them from the draft. Putin knows what they're afraid of. But honestly that not gonna help. Russia's now facing enormous losses in human capital, its best engineers
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I know it myself. Lots of my social circle just moved to Uzbekistan. Why to Uzbekistan? Because that was the only destination where you could fly cheaply. Look at the prices for flights Moscow-Tbilisi. More than 1000 bucks, while normally it costed a 100. That's an exodus
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My next thread will be on Russian economy with a specific focus on its technological dependence and the most efficient sanction policy. For now I want to sum up:
- Russia's going full Nazi
- Regime must be broken. If it's not broken, China'll get its best and most devoted ally
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- Regime absolutely can be broken, and well-designed sanctions will contribute to it greatly. They're already doing their work - factories are stopping production, workers leaving their job because of inflation. Russia already faces a point of failure
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- Many mid-ranked officials are very shocked, very afraid, very disappointed (they expected a quick victory) and desperately looking for the way out. That's where the focus has to be made instead of a way out for Putin. Many of them are actively looking for a way to cooperate
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- Another focus should be made on relocation of Russian emigres, especially qualified emigres in some countries further away from Russian border and not in danger of potential invasion. The shortage of engineers is already visible, give a way out and a brain drain will skyrocket
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The regime already crossed the point of no return. Aa return to the status quo is neither possible nor desirable. In fact deescalation could potentially lead to its evolution, to something much ore efficient and threatening. Existential threat does trigger institutional evolution
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However evolution be it the increase in institutional efficiency or economic integration with China, can be only gradual. It requires time. Give them no time. Increase pressure via sanctions, brain drain and negotiations with mid-ranked officials to break them quickly. End of🧵
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