A brilliant explainer here from @jburnmurdoch
Spoke to my dad this week, apparently US media having a field day with the 40% figure
My explanation (short
)
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1418952126244478977 …
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{Digression}
There is not a vaccine in this world that is
effective
There are many reasons why a vaccine may work in a person.
First and foremost, because we’re all a little different. All of our bodies works differently
But the main reason is a poor immune system.
Two main reason for a poor immune system:
Old age: declines with age but “poor” probably starts around 80 years
Health condition affecting immune system: eg a condition like autoimmune, HIV or no spleen or due to immunosuppressant drugs like in cancer or post transplant
I add this digression because these are also the main reasons why people are likely to have severe case of COVID-19 So there is a *causal* link between having a COVID ‘vaccine failure’ and ending up in hospital from COVID-19 infection. Those 2 events are not independent.
So back to the 40% So I said to my dad: given vaccine is not 100% effective, I sn’t it true that: Once you vaccinate ALL of your people, then... 100% of your COVID hospitalisations (that 2-9% that slip through) will be vaccinated.
(He’s really into logic & proofs so this worked. But he also voted for Trump, so... go figure
)
I followed up by explaining the UK has the amazing NHS - which is very effective at systematically identifying people by age & health condition JCVI vaccine programme priortised these groups first In UK vaccine coverage is >90% in over 65+ and clinically extremely vulnerablepic.twitter.com/eBuROcCuvh
So almost ALL of our people who could get really sick from Covid have had a vaccine. Not *all* but almost.
Whereas the US
has a fragmented health system where poor/elderly/vulnerable are disenfranchised.
~80% of over 65s have been vaccinated ranging from 27-99% by county
https://twitter.com/Victor_A_Leuci/status/1418236806403928071 …
TWICE the % of people 65+ unvaccinated And what about the clinically vulnerable? Does the CDC know if they’re being reached? Can they identify them systematically? Given the wide variation in the US, it’s no wonder 99% of hospitalisations unvaxxedhttps://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/unvaccinated-individuals-now-account-for-the-vast-majority-of-covid-19-hospitalizations-and-deaths-in-the-u-s-according-to-available-data/ …
If and when the US manages to vaccinate all its vulnerable, then you’ll expect - or rather WANT - to see the exact same trend as we are approaching in the UK
, where most COVID hospitalisations are vaccinated.
/end
If only everyone’s dad had a principal epidemiologist for a daughter... There’d be no unvaccinated dads
.
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