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kakape's profile
Kai Kupferschmidt
Kai Kupferschmidt
Kai Kupferschmidt
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@kakape

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Kai KupferschmidtVerified account

@kakape

science journalist. molecular biologist. curious. contributing correspondent at @sciencemagazine part of @pandemiapodcast, all things #blue

Berlin, Germany
sciencemag.org/author/kai-kup…
Joined June 2009

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    Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

    There is an interesting new preprint out that will probably generate a lot of coverage at least in the UK. Essentially it argues that the risk of CVST is much higher from #covid19 than from vaccines. Quick thread on this:https://osf.io/a9jdq/ 

    4:22 AM - 15 Apr 2021
    • 141 Retweets
    • 376 Likes
    • Machteld vd Pijll HabSi_Mandelkern 🌡️🌍🏳‍🌈😷🦒 Robert Clark Jean Sim Max fleur⚗️🔭 PL22 Jens Oliver Faude
    19 replies 141 retweets 376 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        Here is an image from the paper that is likely to feature heavily in debates around this. As you can see the risk of CVST here seems to be 8-10 times higher in people with CVST than in people who received mRNA vaccines or AstraZeneca. BUT: A lot of caveats here.pic.twitter.com/LFD3dxsvXF

        8 replies 19 retweets 75 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        First of all: The paper really only makes a like-with-like comparison with mRNA vaccines (as authors pointed out in presser this morning too: “I think our data say actually nothing about the AZ vaccine.”). That’s why the data on AstraZeneca is greyed out in that graph.

        2 replies 8 retweets 67 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        When you look at mRNA the numbers are very surprising: The researchers essentially found 2 cases of CVST in 500,000 people that received mRNA vaccine. Numbers from ACIP yesterday are: No CVST after 98 million doses of Biontech. 3 cases after 85 million doses of Moderna.

        6 replies 19 retweets 97 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        Hard to reconcile an estimate of 4 in a million, with the reported frequency of 3 in 180 million doses. I have no good explanation for this. Asked one of the scientists and he wrote: "it may just be chance, or diagnoses coded in error, or using different diagnostic criteria"

        6 replies 5 retweets 89 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        We know that #covid19 can lead to blood clotting, so finding cases of CVST in #covid19 patients is not surprising. The very high number here is surprising and if that is borne out it is interesting and important.

        6 replies 5 retweets 63 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        The main question here, of course, is should this change our risk-benefit-analysis and for now I don’t see that it does. Reason no. 1: This tells us little about AstraZeneca which according to a lot of data has a much higher risk of CVST than other vaccines.

        2 replies 5 retweets 61 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        Reason no.2: These serious outcomes of #covid19 should be priced into risk-benefit analyses like those visualised by @d_spiegel already since they simply look at overall risk of severe #covid19 in different age groups. (Spiegelhalter confirmed to me that they are).pic.twitter.com/U6GLh4DMCj

        2 replies 11 retweets 92 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        I asked one of the researchers about this. His reply:

        1 reply 0 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        "Whether it alters the risk-benefit picture is a moot point – at least here in the UK, the preoccupation is particularly with the CVT risk not with risks more generally, and so we hope that by drawing attention to this specific outcome after COVID we can help inform the debate"

        7 replies 2 retweets 47 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Kai Kupferschmidt‏Verified account @kakape 15 Apr 2021

        So I worry that the way this research will be portrayed is going to be very different from it tells us (and what the researchers tell us about it). But let’s wait and see.

        8 replies 3 retweets 73 likes
        Show this thread
      12. End of conversation

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