New study from Imperial College London estimates 1.2%-5.4% of UK population has been infected by coronavirus so far
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial
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If we buy this then at least in Italy it’s likely burning out at less than 20% of the population and likely measures had limited effect. That isn’t a recommendation, suggestion, or argument to go out and lick anyone. But it’s a possible, if optimistic interpretation.
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Pure speculation until actual serological studies are done, which won’t be months or years. Extreme cross-reactivity between COVID19 and other corona viruses is making it difficult to develop a highly specific serological test.
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could the extreme cross-reactivity also mean some level of cross-immunity? (might recent infection by 'common cold' coronaviruses a possible 'hidden factor' influencing mild vs severe cases?)
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Is it moderately worrying that none of the median estimates R0 values are below 1? (though <1 is within confidence intervals, and 1.2 is clearly a lot better than 4...) - graph here for the UK.
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Data for Italy interventions are odd. In northern Italy (where vast majority of cases are) schools are closed and social distancing is implemented since 24/2
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