Hi, fellow tweeters! (Yes, I’m cheesy). I wanted to share my new article with you all on realistic pathways for decarbonizing small island developing states (SIDS). (1)
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Renewables are always assumed to be the #1 solution for decarbonizing SIDS.
Given that they account for less than 1% of global emissions, decarbonizing—however it is done—won’t make a difference for mitigating global warming. (2)
sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/docume
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But the question of decarbonizing keeps arising anyways, whether by outsiders through a global push for decreasing every emissions source, no matter how small, or by their own desires to transition to carbon-free energy sources.(3)
nytimes.com/2021/05/18/cli
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Rather than emissions reduction, the real opportunity presented by transitioning away from fossil fuels is achieving energy security and affordability. (4)
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Most small island developing nations are almost entirely dependent on imported fossil fuels, which creates significant financial pressure and vulnerability given that they are completely dependent on other nations to keep their own lights on. (5)
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A better understanding of energy security and reliability challenges must be the fundamental basis for energy transition solutions for island nations. (6)
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Small island states share a distinct combination of geographical and economic characteristics that make decarbonization even more difficult than for other countries. (7)
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Regarding the 100%-renewables approach, entirely relying on variable renewable generation for energy, specifically solar and wind energy, would not be so simple as one might assume. (8)
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First, there is the economics. Many small island developing economies depend on relatively erratic income streams, such as tourism and remittances (for many, tourism accounts for over 25% of their GDP). (9)
e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.181
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Given how much variability already exists for these economies, the added investments needed to reliably operate large amounts of variable energy and batteries could exacerbate economic challenges. (10)
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Second, there’s the problem of variability: ensuring energy security in the event of low sunlight or wind, such as during extreme weather events which are quite common for many island nations. (11)
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Due to their geographical isolation, these nations are on their own in the case of insufficient generation, as they don’t have the benefit of long-distance grid connections with other regions. (12)
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A 100%-renewable power grid would require a high amount of storage through high-performing batteries, plus added wind and solar capacity to charge this storage capacity while meeting regular societal needs. (13)
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And that leads to the third problem: scarce land. On many of these islands, there is not much space to achieve what would be required for a 100%-renewable grid. (14)
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Furthermore, the reliability of solar-wind energy systems decreases for countries with small land areas. (15)
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This is not to argue that island nations must make an “either/or” decision between wind and solar versus other clean energy technologies, in favor of the latter. (16)
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It just means SIDS governments must expand their focus to include firm, clean energy sources to make up for variable generation from renewables. A variety of energy technology types will always be best. (17)
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Finances also make a huge difference. In large and wealthy nations, decarbonizing may be expensive, but it's definitely possible. (18)
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Developed countries can afford to subsidize clean energy to a relatively high degree; their markets can bear taxes that make fossil fuels more expensive and they can readily borrow for what they don’t have in funds. (19)
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None of this will work for small island developing nations, which can’t readily subsidize, already face extremely expensive energy costs, and cannot borrow capital as easily. (20)
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Loss and damage funds may well be eaten up entirely if small island developing nations continue paying back debt at a rate of more than 15 times what they received in climate finance. (21)
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New funding mechanisms like the Bridgetown Agenda are being proposed in the hopes of building resilience in small island developing states while enabling their escape from the debt hamster wheel. (22)
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Some have likewise introduced proposals for developed countries to cancel small developing island nations’ debt altogether in exchange for the climate funding they have promised to small island nations, killing two birds with one stone. (23)
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Some nations are trying to create change themselves through organizations like , which focuses on energy solutions suitable for small island nations through public-private partnerships and investments.Either way, island states will need a lot more fiscal flexibility./24
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In the end, these nations need firm energy sources and new, resilient infrastructure if they are to enjoy a prosperous life beyond simply surviving climate impacts. (25)
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Suitable support for variable renewables and batteries could include geothermal and nuclear energy. Geothermal potential is still vastly unexplored despite its potential, at least for Caribbean nations. (26)
sta.uwi.edu/eng/wije/vol42
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Nuclear power can easily meet the energy demand of many island states, more suitably using smaller reactors. Jamaica has been successfully managing a research reactor since 1984, and it’s time to consider expanding that expertise for broader energy use./27
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But accomplishing this growth while decarbonizing will take capital to invest in infrastructure and clean energy technologies. It will also take international technological support and institutional capacity building. (28)
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Overall, the real point of an energy transition for small island developing nations is to acquire secure energy sources that can build prosperity. (29)
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The sooner governments and financial institutions realize this, the sooner these countries can finally achieve energy security and affordability. (30)
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A reliable, affordable, and flexible energy system is an important step towards economic development, which will itself be key to building resilience through infrastructure that will provide better protection, decrease poverty and raise living standards. (31)
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