Very well-calibrated of you
Sorry folks, I had to delete that chart of well-calibrated experts because I think it was too misleading (likes weren’t counted as votes, which changes the list and distribution a lot)
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Well, I *was* highly rated for calibration (... in a totally unbiased poll of my own followers)
End of conversation
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It was the strangest thing you've posted in two years of following you.
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Oh that seems unlikely
End of conversation
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Plus that whole Taleb at the top thing
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So I was thinking about the list afterwards, and I realized that I didn't see
@benthompson of@stratechery mentioned on the list. Perhaps the Venn diagram of your followers and his readers is tiny? (Also possible he didn't come to mind with framing of question/others mentioned.)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Plus, who cares about self-important congratulatory lists?
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Unless a person makes specific predictions with confidence levels and amasses a fairly large sample of these, it’s going to be hard to rate their calibration. Scott Alexander is one of the few people I’ve seen do this. Being well calibrated is more than just admitting bias.
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I love a precautionary retraction. I'd still guess that Sam
@SamHarrisOrg comes out at or near the top of the list since calibrating himself in public is essentially his day job.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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