There's a Danish proverb: "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." but it also seems difficult even if they're not about the future, as displayed here by Haldane.pic.twitter.com/Vf7a5OzJKD
Wilbur Wright, on the difficulty of forecasting technological progress -- even for someone at the heart of the field:pic.twitter.com/qwfrvGQV7Q
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Actually, that's Yogi Berra: “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
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I wasn't initially sure where it came from, and Yogi Berra may well have said it, but it turns out it's a good bit older than that: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/ …
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Learn something new every day. QI is a great site -- if you don't mind having your beliefs about the origins of quotes shaken up regularly.
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Same with Enrico Fermi and net power from nuclear fission. https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/ …pic.twitter.com/205YWmzlMV
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and fusion is still ... away
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Oh man, I love the Wright brothers. Have you read The Wright Brothers by David McCullough, by chance? It's fascinating and quite well-researched.
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And his brother Orville went on to invent popcorn so you can never know what will happen
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“ai safety issues are decades away from relevance”
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This page has a whole series of great quotes related to this:http://humanscience.wikia.com/wiki/Worst_Predictions …
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The only way to predict the future is to invent it
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That's why I won't be surprised if I get to get out of 'the simulation' tomorrow.
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Is that a “thing? The great escape?
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Yep. The Greatest! This is how I feel whenever I think about it:https://youtu.be/gw7XefyCj6c
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Technological progress is easy to predict. What will go to market at a price point and desirability to reach wide spread adoption, that’s the hard stuff.
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Progress in general, sure. Specifics, though? A decade ago, I would have said
#nanotech would happen in the next 20 years, and solving byzantine's general problem was a mathematical impossibility. But#blockchain came out a year later, and we're still ~20 years from nanotech. -
Nanotech was never anything other than hype and hype squared. There are hard physical limits on the fantasies of nanotech.
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So you'd be willing to bet that, say, none of these five products; https://www.nanowerk.com/nanotechnology-news/newsid=44165.php … or substantially equivalent ones based on nanotech will have total market shares of over $10m by 2025?
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So...If Wright is wrong, how can I trust anyone ever again?
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