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juliagalef's profile
Julia Galef
Julia Galef
Julia Galef
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@juliagalef

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Julia GalefVerified account

@juliagalef

SF-based writer & speaker focused on reasoning, judgment, and the future of humanity. Host of the Rationally Speaking podcast (@rspodcast)

San Francisco
juliagalef.com
Joined January 2009

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    Julia Galef‏Verified account @juliagalef May 25

    Man, I love a good disambiguation. If everyone was familiar with this breakdown (by @donandrewmoore) it would make conversations about overconfidence so much less frustrating. From https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/spc3.12331 …pic.twitter.com/40QXbxnd53

    12:31 PM - 25 May 2018
    • 75 Retweets
    • 354 Likes
    • jayrt savlo Don Sutterfield yitscar davidad  🎇 Don Moore Robbie J Frye Derek Cooper Sean Tierney Dan
    14 replies 75 retweets 354 likes
      1. Jonathan Howard‏ @JHowardBrainMD May 25
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        I'm certain none of these biases apply to me.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Dam Nuwen‏ @Dam_Nuwen May 25
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        I think overprecision and overplacement imply overestimation

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3.  👑harri 👑‏ @hay_guise May 25
        Replying to @Dam_Nuwen @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        overplacement could be correctly estimating your skills + assuming everyone else is awful overprecision seems a bit weirdly worded there, but I think it could apply to being really sure you're bad at something, too. your perceived range smaller than what you have evidence for

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. T-Shades (Tyler)‏ @TShadesTyler May 25
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        "Overprecision" reminds me of "rationalization". Out of context I'd think "How could that be a bad thing?" Scenario: A: I think you're being overprecise. B: Yeah I'm being overprecise! Because I believe in truth and precision. This guy doesn't like people being precise!

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Zain Pradhan‏ @h3ekurosaki May 25
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        ... or when someone accurately criticizes their own flaws, we tell them to stop being so negative about themselves. It seems that westerners in general love to say that they are infatuated with integrity, and yet when someone displays it, they choose to disdain that person.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim May 25
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        That's fantastic. And I have two papers in preparation that will both need to cite this.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Arvind Iyer‏ @longhandnotes May 25
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        What are the contributions of underestimation, underplacement and underprecision in the incidence of "impostor syndrome"? 🤔 It maybe interesting to get at least some self-reports for starters.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Robbie J Frye‏ @RobbieJFrye May 29
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        "Only sometimes overconfident." - @donandrewmoore 🧐 care to clarify?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Don Moore‏ @donandrewmoore May 29
        Replying to @RobbieJFrye @juliagalef

        If only I knew what I was overconfident about, then I could debias myself.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Robbie J Frye‏ @RobbieJFrye May 29
        Replying to @donandrewmoore @juliagalef

        Can't be 'overestimation' because your modifier 'sometimes' Can't be 'overplacement' because your Twitter profile picture. 😉 Has to be 'overprecision' because of elimination and your chosen field. Elementary really... New Twitter bio - "Overprecisive by association."

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Brian Lui‏ @brianluidog May 27
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        There's a 2007 paper by Don Moore and Paul J. Healy which says that overprecision is the only consistent bias, but tends to reduce the magnitude of the other two: http://healy.econ.ohio-state.edu/papers/Moore_Healy-TroubleWithOverconfidence_WP.pdf …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. zetashero‏ @zetashero May 26
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        @MonikaJeon1

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. thejungeron‏ @thejungeron May 26
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        Tbh I dislike disambiguation. To me the aim is to unify as much phenomena under the same continuous mechanism. One of the banes of psychology and philosophy compared to physics is the invention of new phrases for every new phenomena instead of synthesizing it with the old.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Zain Pradhan‏ @h3ekurosaki May 25
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        We have in our society words to label people who undervalue themselves or their capabilities, words like underestimate, and vice versa overestimate, yet when someone estimates just right, we call them arrogant, even if they can back up their knowledge base in comparison to yours.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. James Vaughan‏ @JamesVghn May 25
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        Do you view things like “confidence” as tools-useful or not-for taking action? I don’t have a lot of patience for dealing with “overconfidence”. In many contexts people MUST be able to perform certain tasks. Overconfidence has no place. Surgery for example.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. michael freeman‏ @michaelfreeman May 25
        Replying to @juliagalef @donandrewmoore

        the person that wrote that is overconfident

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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