2/ In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, debate in
revolved around WHEN #Article50 would be triggered, not consequences of doing so.
could live with
triggering in March 2017, as that gets
out before EP
2019.
-
-
Deze collectie tonen
-
3/ Having triggered,
wasted time with an early election, and then by time May made her Florence speech in September, even she realised time was short. Hence transition.Deze collectie tonen -
4/ But both
and
want to avoid a transition into transition and a transition out of transition. So
had to quickly conceed transition needs to look as much like being in
as possible.Deze collectie tonen -
5/ Again there was an alignment of convenience on timing - May's "around two years" became "by the end of December 2020", lining up transition end with
budget financial perspectives.Deze collectie tonen -
6/ Then it has taken from December's summit until today's release of the transition guidelines for everyone to really realise what transition is going to mean for
: it makes itself a vassal state. Meanwhile the
-27 stand united on the issue.Deze collectie tonen -
7/ Plus this is not even the
option on offer in transition - it is worse than that for
- it has no representation *whatsoever* in *anything* in
for at least 21 months.Deze collectie tonen -
-
9/ Walk away from talks? But then we're back at No Deal Brexit, which even Davis and May seem to have realised is a catastrophe. That threat is not serious. Walk out now, with 14 months of Article 50 to go, and that'll cause panic.
Deze collectie tonen -
10/ Go through with transition? To do so on these terms puts
in a remarkably weak position vis à vis
. Surely unacceptable to Tories.
gets what it wants if
tries this.Deze collectie tonen -
11/ Or attempt some other solution - either grovel to rest of
to extend #Article50 instead, as it is less painful? Or withdraw the Article 50 notification? These options are also
for Tories.Deze collectie tonen -
12/ This has been very well handled by
@michelbarnier@WeyandSabine@StefaanDeRynck and team, and how they've kept
-27 on board.Deze collectie tonen -
13/
has been manoeuvred into a position where it has to choose *very soon* on transition, all options are tricky, and forcing this sort of choice now, rather than in the autumn is a very good call by
. #Brexit is about to get even more
/endsDeze collectie tonen
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