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Farage has announced that the Brexit Party will not run in the 317 constituencies the Tories won in 2017
The first reaction among Tories would be one of relief - this will help us! 
But look at the details and it is more complex than that...
#GE19
![EU[28]citizen🇪🇺🔶🐟#FBPE#MVM](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1223162377488695296/QlbLzpRV_normal.jpg)
Let's look at some examples First, Chingford and Woodford Green https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chingford_and_Woodford_Green_(UK_Parliament_constituency) … Won by the Tories in 2017 (so no Brexit Party candidate this time), and 12.7% for UKIP in 2015 Incumbent IDS will be smilingpic.twitter.com/z5lclo0FIy
Second, Wimbledon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wimbledon_(UK_Parliament_constituency) …
Won by the Tories in 2017 (so no Brexit Party candidate this time), but just 5.1% for UKIP in 2015
Incumbent Tory Stephen Hammond will be 
pic.twitter.com/p9BaWZ5dD4
Third, Great Grimsby
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Grimsby_(UK_Parliament_constituency) …
Won by Labour in 2017, so there will be a Brexit Party candidate this time - and 25% for UKIP in 2015!
Labour incumbent Melanie Onn will be 
pic.twitter.com/pKIDCsLdfB
Fourth, Newcastle-under-Lyme
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcastle-under-Lyme_(UK_Parliament_constituency) …
Won by Labour in 2017, MP Paul Farrelly retiring, UKIP 16.9% in 2015 - Labour will be 
pic.twitter.com/ct4HetWJyX
Basically what Farage has announced today:
Helps Tories in Tory held Tory-Labour marginals
Little impact on Tories where Lib Dems can do well / Remain leaning places
Brexit Party focus on Labour held Labour-Tory marginals will split Tory vote there
Two conclusions - expect pressure for Farage to stand down his candidates in Labour held Labour-Tory marginals as well - if the pro-Brexit parties are to be defeated then tactical voting by Remain people is a must, and today underlines this still further! /ends
Why are you quoting GE2015 results? What about GE2017?
Because Farage did not run in 2017 - he had left UKIP then. So UKIP 2015 is a useful guide as to how well BXP could do in 2019...
So what is the payoff, some of the Russian money, a knighthood, a peerage or perhaps all three!
Nah, none of those I think. He saw the way the wind was blowing. Better step back before being humiliated...
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