This one sees the chances of a General Election decreasing, and the chances of
just asking
for more time increasing
Why?
Because sentiment against No Deal is hardening, but the chances of a VONC succeeding, or an alternative government being established, are worsening
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As ever feedback is very welcome, especially if you disagree about the odds on a particular node I have also had to make some assumptions about how Commons can block No Deal so as to make the diagram make any sense - feedback on that also very welcome
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And as ever high a high res PNG, a high res PDF, a ODS file of all the calculations, and the draw(dot)io XML is available on my blog here:https://jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/ …
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Praise (and frustration) be!
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Top stuff. Just in time for my lunch-break! I think No Deal is too low, both because a) I am more pessimistic on legislative route than your odds and b) even after successful VONC, Johnson could schedule crash out
#Brexit after General Election unless agreement on caretaker PM. -
I still - perhaps foolishly - don't think Johnson will go for full on constitutional crisis.
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Deze Tweet is niet beschikbaar.
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This was an idea raised by
@JohnOBrennan2 - but I have seen no inkling whatsoever that Johnson is contemplating it. If anything his letter to Tusk sounds firmer than ever that no special situation can be permitted for NI.
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I was thrown off by the decreased chance of a general election, but then I looked closer and saw the chances of the extension. I personally subscribe to the theory that this far right path is Boris Johnson’s plan and will call a GE immediately after.
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I say
#BorisJohnson jumps the gun and calls a#generalelection before he is defeated by a VONC. So#NoDealBrexit happens on 31 October and the UK goes to the polls the day after. -
I do think this is an unfortunately high possibility
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