This is probably the most horrible and complicated one I have made to date, and seeks to combine what will happen this week with what will happen into the autumn.
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Also importantly it has a major change with regard to how the Queen will be involved this week - previously I had gone along with UCL Constitution Unit's analysis, but now I am more persuaded by the case made by
@carlgardner &@alanbellapertum herehttps://twitter.com/alanbellapertum/status/1153646157526196230 …Deze collectie tonen -
This latest diagram has been done now 5 hours on from the announcement and there is not a peep from Tories possibly defecting, and Corbyn was not willing to be drawn on a VONC either. So chances Johnson survives into summer recess *up*, chances of crisis this week *down*.
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But after adding all these extra permutations to the diagram the overall effect - in comparison to V7.1 - is basically none. Just +/- 1% for each outcome. Just the
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And - as ever - feedback and critique very welcome, especially if you think I have the odds on a specific node wrong. .ods, .xml files, and .png, .pdf high res images on mb blog here:https://jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/ …
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Some sharp eyed people spotted a typo in the original V8. Now corrected!pic.twitter.com/X7PVcalHgP
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Holy fuck!
Bedankt, Twitter gebruikt dit om je tijdlijn te verbeteren. Ongedaan makenOngedaan maken
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I always wonder how you calculate the odds that you give?

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It's based on how MPs have voted in the past, on what the Commons arithmetic is, and what players' hierarchy of preferences are. But that can change from week to week...
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Is the left one meant to say that they're denied a majority?pic.twitter.com/1waogzP3IR
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The "Not" applies to the entire rest of the text, not only the part up to the comma
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Het laden lijkt wat langer te duren.
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citizen,
passport,
resident. Teaches