As ever, high res PNGs and PDFs are on my blog, as is the .ods file used to calculate the probabilities: https://jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/ … Note the .ods file has a new structure for this version, allowing you to change the probabilities per node easily and see the impact
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The changes here - in comparison to V6 from a fortnight ago: General Election - 66% (
from 61%)
#PeoplesVote - 9% (
from 4%)
No Deal - 13% (
from 19%)
Further Art 50 Ext - 6% (
from 8%)
Exit with Deal - 6% (
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If you think my 60% chance that enough Tory MPs cross the House before Johnson is confirmed as PM is too optimistic, and you reduce that to just 10%, it makes little difference to overall outcome - that puts GE up to 69% and
#PeoplesVote down to 5%Deze collectie tonen -
Three articles have especially influenced my thinking for this version:
@ConUnit_UCL "Six constitutional questions raised by the election of the new Conservative leader"https://constitution-unit.com/2019/06/30/six-constitutional-questions-raised-by-the-election-of-the-new-conservative-leader/ …Deze collectie tonen -
@jonlis1 "Make no mistake: Britain is on the cusp of a constitutional crisis of epic proportions" https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/make-no-mistake-britain-is-on-the-cusp-of-a-constitutional-crisis-of-epic-proportions …@MSmithsonPB "Johnson looks a certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26" http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/05/johnson-looks-certainty-as-yougov-con-members-poll-has-him-leading-74-26/ …Deze collectie tonen -
I'll be presenting this new version at the Freudenstadt Symposium on European Regionalism this weekend. And - as ever - feedback and critique are very welcome! /ends
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Thanks to an astute observation by
@UBFriccardo I was missing an option that Johnson himself would call a People's Vote. That has been added in Version 7.1pic.twitter.com/DBEG8fDoj8
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what if Hunt wins?
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nevermind... should have read better :)
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Pardon my French, but it looks like it's going to be an absolute shitshow.

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Het laden lijkt wat langer te duren.
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citizen,
passport,
resident. Teaches