The outcomes are now slightly different...
No Deal 31 Oct - 6%
May's Deal, amended PD (harder) - 1%
Longer extension beyond 31 Oct, no clarity - 13%
Softer Brexit, date unknown - 8%
General Election before 31 Oct - 49%
#PeoplesVote and longer ext - 15%
Revoke by 31 Oct - 8%
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Major mover here is: GENERAL ELECTION This has leapt to being the most likely option in the next stage. It is based on the Tories, if not right now, ousting May, or Labour trying to do it if cross party talks fail. Plus Tories would rather do it than wait for a No Conf vote.
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NO DEAL and REVOKE are both down - yesterday shows the EU does not want to push the UK to the brink of a showdown between these two options, and probably will not in October either. Chances of solutions based on May-Corbyn talks still low.
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As ever critique of this is very welcome - this diagram is a whole lot more speculative than previous versions because so little is now known! And XML and high res images are on my blog: https://jonworth.eu/brexit-where-now-the-flow-diagrams/ … /ends
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I would be shocked if we aren't being driven towards a general election, which has the potential to reconfigure the Brexit landscape: who will lead Tories, will Labour commit to PV in manifesto, hung parliament with Libs, SNP, CUKs holding balance, CUKs being crushed...
Bedankt, Twitter gebruikt dit om je tijdlijn te verbeteren. Ongedaan makenOngedaan maken
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I originally put Theresa May’s removal this month MUCH higher, but thanks for reminding me about the ongoing (if futile) cross-party talks. That can at least buy her a month. Your percentages seem spot-on.
Bedankt, Twitter gebruikt dit om je tijdlijn te verbeteren. Ongedaan makenOngedaan maken
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Would Labour manage to get a no confidence vote through?
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I rate it .6 yes, .4 no
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I like your flow charts Jon, they help me immensely to understand brexit. but I'm wondering how an outcome with 49pc chance has such a tiny window of entry into that flow?
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Time wise you mean? Because in terms of *ways* to get there, there are plenty. The Q inherent here is which order to do it all - the Tories want May out before a General Election, so they'll pull the trigger if the danger is Corbyn does with a No Conf vote...
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citizen,
passport,
resident. Teaches