Here follows a thread that is rather speculative in nature. Forgive me, and by all means tell me I’m wrong. I’m not sure I’m myself convinced of this. But here goes.
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How do you do that? Have a dozen loyalists ready to put in letters for you, when you need it. Only 25 of the 48 MPs who wrote are known: https://www.google.com/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/brexit/no-confidence-vote-theresa-may-tory-mps-letters-brexit-deal-1922-committee-full-list/amp/ …
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Also doing it before the European Council strengthens May’s hand marginally there. She could promise what she wants today, knowing Brussels won’t give it to her tomorrow:https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1072952969275035648?s=20 …
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The other way round - European Council first, then No Confidence - would be much worse. Then she’d have been left defending the crumbs Brussels gave her when facing the No Confidence vote. Instead they now can’t oust her that way for a year.
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This also means - as Hugo Dixon points out - that she can now more safely lose the Meaningful Vote, and could even hold it earlier:https://twitter.com/hugodixon/status/1072980906644774912?s=21 …
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I’m aware this thread attributes more tactical cunning to May and her people (Julian Smith? Or this even sounds like a Oliver Letwin plan) than at any time to date. This could all be fortuitous instead.
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And May is still weak, and has enemies all around. But maybe this little play - getting the confidence vote done fast - was a clever move. Where it leaves Brexit is anyone’s guess though. /ends
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Einde van gesprek
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The first rule of Torydom is that it's always somebody else's fault. The egos of the ERG will be in no doubt that the death of hard brexit must be force majeur/conspiracy. Their Paymasters would accept nothing less.
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