Any attempt to keep the UK in a Customs Union with the EU: hard core Brexiters in the ERG oppose. There are 40 odd of them. 2/9
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So Theresa May’s calculation then is as follows: can she get enough MPs from other parties (essentially Labour) to make up the shortfall? 3/9
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The arithmetic would suggest ditching the DUP, tacking towards the ERG position, would leave her with the smallest shortfall. *But* Labour’s positions are miles from the ERGs and May would be playing with fire re. Irish border. 4/9
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If instead she backed the DUP, and softened the government’s Brexit position as far as a permanent UK-EU Customs Union, May might attract some Labour support - but enough to outweigh the ERG MPs voting against her. 5/9
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So - at present - I conclude there’s no Withdrawal Agreement with a majority in the House of Commons. 6/9
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Stalemate. I can see no way to make the Commons arithmetic work. 7/9
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This leads the UK towards No Deal first, then to panic, then to political crisis. 8/9
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The intriguing question for me is whether, if she had a majority, she would disregard the DUP. Her Unionism appears strong but this would test it to the limit.
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But ultimately that doesn’t actually help.
Einde van gesprek
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